Stanley Hopcroft,
My best guess is that the "lump" in DEVPREDICT is probably due to an order of magnitude shock (a spike or spikes) in your time series at that point (or near that point) in the seasonal cycle at some point in the past. If you have a daily cycle (the default with 5 min intervals and a seasonal cycle of 288), then this could have occurred in the last several days. The algorithm has "learned" that there is unpredictability at this point in the seasonal cycle and therefore has a wide confidence band. By default the seasonal deviation tuning parameter will be set to the same value of alpha (the intercept adaptation parameter). With a value of 0.0035, it might take some time to "unlearn" the spike. You can try setting the seasonal adaptation parameter to a more aggressive value (via the tune command with the -v flag). Our production environment is using the value 0.28. BTW, Stanislav Sinyagin [EMAIL PROTECTED], a contributor to this list, has developed a tool which allows you to experiment with different tuning parameters for aberrant behavior. You may want to contact him and play around with it. Jake Jake Brutlag Network Analyst TV Services -- Network Operations Microsoft MSN -- Unsubscribe mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] Help mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] Archive http://www.ee.ethz.ch/~slist/rrd-developers WebAdmin http://www.ee.ethz.ch/~slist/lsg2.cgi
