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I've seen the slides on the Holt Winter smoothing, and how it shows up
on the charts, and it seems to be quite useful.

how can I tell if I am in a failure situation from the command line?

ie.. my script does something like this
rrdtool update foobar.rrd N:value

and I would like to do something like

rrdtool update foobar.rrd N:value
if (??? == 'aberrant' ) {
        do something
}
hopefully the '???' wouldn't be too expensive an operation, so I could
do it every update.

TIA
Ian
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