Another idea (US-centric): those awful TVPG (etc) ratings logos in the upper left, which apparently became mandated after -every- commercial break fairly recently, no doubt because of panic over the wardrobe malfunction incident. In two sizes---godawful huge at the start of the program, and merely enormous after each break.
Fortunately, they come in far fewer varieties than station bugs (logos), and they aren't animated (yet, anyway). If one is detected, it should raise the probability quite a bit that the video ending 30 or so frames back is probably inside a commercial break, which might raise the probability that a potential start of break detected n minutes beforehand really is a true commercial break.
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