If you had hardware knowledge, I suppose you could, theoretically, wire-up an opto to the power LED in the cable box, and connect the output to an unused serial port line on the PC. A simple Perl script could then read the state of the opto.
Point a �15 usb webcam at the power LED and do some image processing to determine if its on or not. Im sure that would be quite easy if it was close enough, although would look ugly if the cable box is under the tv
g
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