----- Original Message -----
Sent: Tuesday, April 19, 2005 4:17
AM
Subject: RE: cost of doing business
The problem I see coming is simple bandwidth wastage driven by
NA TV habits. Many homes have TVs on during the day full time even when
not watched. Now were talking about as much as 10-20 Mbps (depending in
HDTV adoption) going into a void.
Mike
-----Original Message-----
From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]] On
Behalf Of Thomas Kernen
Sent: Tuesday, April 19, 2005
1:48 AM
To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]; Andrew Odlyzko
Subject: Re: cost of doing business
>> fwiw, 100mb to the home costs about that in
japan
>
>
>
> We are talking of two
different things here, traffic versus access
>
bandwidth.
> It will be a while before the average
household generates 5 megabit/s
> traffic.
> Even in Korea and Hong Kong, where the average broadband
link is in
> the 5-10 Mbps range, average traffic
is about 0.1 Mbps. The main
> purpose of high
speed links is to get low transaction latency (as in
> "I want that Web page on my screen NOW," or "I want that song for
> transfer to my portable device NOW"), so
utilizations are low.
>
For those of us that are already running triple play
architectures and working on the data analysis related to the bandwidth usage
growth (in my case over the last 18 months and adding services one after the
other) I see this with a different light:
I fully agree with the transaction latency syndrome, people
are compulsive customers that want to buy right now and you (as a service
provider) want to see to them purchase the service before they change their
mind, just need to look at the ringtones market to see how much people are
willing to spend within seconds for a piece of music they will replace in a
few days/weeks with their next favorite tune from the charts that marketing is
feeding them with.
Where I don't agree is on the bandwidth usage analysis, once
you add the IP based TV/VOD* services you will be carrying close to 5Mbps on
average on your network in the near future. Either for the one of the TV
channels (currently the market is talking about 2 concurrent TV channels down
the same pipe to an end user's home in the North American model or 1 for
the
European) or the VOD. So agreed this is not Internet traffic
but you will need to carry it beyond your access termination device
(DSLAM/CMTS/ Ethernet
switch) since the economics of the IPTV/VOD market and
(current?) technical scalability will prevent you from being able to have a
the full IPTV/VOD streaming (= unicast and/or multicast in this case) in each
POP to keep the traffic as local as possible. So anyhow within your metro area
network accessing and aggregating the customers the amount of bandwith
required to service all customers will grow quite a bit with IPTV/VOD
services.
IMHO (of course)
Thomas
*Triple play IPTV/VOD = IP packets carrying a video signal
using (name your favorite format) either as unicast or multicast stream. This
excludes the current hybrid HFC networks that still provide digital TV via an
HF stream using (insert your favorite standard here) and the Internet access
and voice service over IP. Anyhow they will migrate once DOCSIS 3.0 and
the wideband benefits have been marketed to all the cable operators as the
"next big thing" they need to have and hence run an IP only service for all
the triple play services.
