Cf Renesys's superb analysis of the FLAG/FALCON/SMW4 cut, it looks like SingTel are the people to go to for reliable connectivity in Asia (they were the reconnection champs in January as well).
On Feb 20, 2008 2:03 AM, Matthew Petach <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > Sorry, quick flurry of notes all at once now that things > are wrapping up. ^_^;; > > Matt > > > > 2008.02.19 Aftershocks from Taiwan Earthquake > > Two presentations, and the IPv6 hour is starting > now... > > Randy Bush has some things to say about the IPv6 > hour. > > The IPv4 LANs have been turned off; you will note > that you don't have good v6 connectivity even if > you're a v6 expert. Failure is as good as success > for this. > > Thunderbird and Firefox have v6 DNS resolution turned > off by default. > > Macintosh--if you put in v6 DNS server IP address, if > you have capital A in it, it drops it! > > ISC DHCPv6 has issues > > Cisco NAT-PT has issues > > Linux based NAT-PT substituted in isn't scaling. > > So, we've learned a LOT already! The experiment > has already been an excellent success as far as > Randy is concerned. > > > So, on to the talk. > > Martin Brown from Renesys will talk about the > Taiwan earthquake analysis. > > With contributions from Alin, Todd, and Earl, all > from Renesys. > > Will look at shape of aftereffects, and then will > look at fallout, the shift in transit patterns. > > Large earthquake hit Luzon Strait, south of > Taiwan on 26 Dec 2006 > 7 of 9 cables were severed in strait > reviewed at APRICOT in Bali in 2007 > > 2 not cut: Asia Netcom's EAC, and Guam-Philippines > All cables reported reported on Feb 14, 2007. > > Renesys is like route views, but they do way more > processing on the data. > > Adjacent or 1 hop away from 65% of all internet > transit providers > > Focus on prefixes geo-located in Asia region. > > Defines what a network outage is, what unreachable > means, and what unstable/flapping networks are. > > Pattern of taiwan earthquakes; shape of impact. > ramping up of outages and spikes in instabilities. > smaller quake on dec 27th > Recovery pattern is typically noisy > > Outages/immediate aftermath of the quake, 10 days. > 4 or 5 big quakes on the 26th, but outage ramps up > slowly; the 27th quake has huge spike after that, > much like last stick in Jenga. > Almost 4000 networks suffered an outage due to the > quakes. > > China, Indonesia, India hit very hard by it. > > Instabilities, same basic shape, more noisyness to it. > same countries hit for outages and instability. > > Looked at the severity of impact; factor out baseline > instability and outage for each country; compare that > median to the peak; > china/hong kong hit worst. > About 70 times more outages in peak at hong kong as a > result of the outage, 55 times more in taiwan > > For instability, china showed 1300 times more > instability in 10 days after quake as in 2 weeks > before the quake. > > what did it look like after the event, who went > to new providers? > Looked at transit relationships, mapped them into > market regions, and ranked them based on size. > So, score first, then rank. > they geolocate all prefixes first of all, give it a > location > give score to prefix based on length > pre-cidr are discounted, probably less well utilized > also look at transit patterns for that prefix. > ignore any more specifics that share same transit > pattern. > Now looking at all AS-to-AS relationship; they track > all adjacencies on net. Will categorize the nature > of the edge. > computationally expensive, but lets them track all the > relationships. > gives a way to sum a score to a geo location or market. > > relationship between scores is important for ranking, > the raw score doesn't matter. > Don't show traffic volumes, profit, customer satisfaction, > etc. > > If you have a retail score, if you show up adjacent in > a market. probably in the region. Sprint is biggest > transit for Sprint; but not much of a retail edge there. > > Can look at trend, see who gains or loses market share. > > coloured countries on map are most affected by quake. > > Look at the changes in the region since quake. > compare by size, by deltas, and who gains, and who lost? > > India gained, Vietnam more than doubled in size > > four of 22 countries affected, look at the breakdown > of who serves them. > Can see which edges are interesting, and see who is > growing. > CW, tiscali, seabone/TI > Fairly clear the transit patterns shifted as result of > quake. > Chunghua provided transit during the aftermath until > the restoration. > > ATT lost Hanaro at quake, then VSNL dropped during > time of repair, lost a bit of Asia Netcom, did well > with Bharti. > > SingTel did very well; picked up China Netcom towards > end of year; Vietnam Telecom chose singtel > > PCCW jumped 10 points, picked up starhub out of > singapore close to cable repair point. > > telecom italia jumped 15 places in ranking; they got > singtel, but no sharp jump in prefixes. > simple metric of prefixes over time doesn't show > whole story. > > Need to also see how *many* people chose the prefix > over time. > So new edge score is PPT (prefix, peers, time) > sum the amount of time the peer saw the prefix > routed on the edge during a time interval > all prefixes have same weight > cannot distinguish between an edge with a lot of > prefixes seen by a few, and an edge with a few > prefixes seen by many. > > In the aftermath of the quake, world prefers to > use telecom italia to reach singtel. > > CW gains big in India, Bharti, TM net, > jumps huge in the chart. > > Tiscali gains from Asia Netcom, 6000 prefixes, > and wins providers in Hong Kong, Philippines > > Chinese providers grew, but didn't grow relative > to other providers, so they dropped ranks. > > Still living with fragile internet, in asia and > middle east; the cuts in mediterranean region > from yesterday highlight that. Need more > diversity in the region, both east and > west. > > Q: CNET networks--were you able to detect > partitioning, where japan could get to > china, but not US, for example? > Most likely, but they didn't focus on > looking for that in this analysis. > > Q: Alin, Renesys, Telecom Italia and Singtel > were peering before quake; after quake, > relationship changed to transit, the > prefixes shifted, and were picked up > by rest of net. > > Q: Paul Ferguson, can you draw 30,000 foot > view of impact of quake to the middle east > cuts, to show relative impact of outages? > They can can do that. > Taiwan outages were 2.5x as bad as Alexandria, > but press impact was higher. > After taiwan quake, huge drop in spam and > botnet attacks. Todd asks if that means > he doesn't think the middle east is as good > at spamming as Asia? >
