Le 21/03/2020 à 08:37, Bill Woodcock a écrit :
In France I must show a paper (not smartphone) printed permit, each
sortie one different paper. The receiver of it (police) takes it in
his/her gloved hands then s/he passes it back to me. I do not have
gloves. I wished the receiver did not use the same gloves for each
pereson who passes by and delivers that paper to him.
Yep, couldn't believe it when my mate in Lyon told me the same thing
this week.
But I suppose this was to be expected, and is an idea that could
potentially spread, worldwide.
I’ve been in Paris all week, and have gone out, on average, once a day. I
pre-printed a stack of already-filled-out forms at the beginning of the week,
so I’ve just checked the appropriate box each time I’ve gone out, no big deal.
Seems quite reasonable to me. Gets people to at least give some conscious
thought as to whether their reason for going out actually meets one of the
listed criteria. And I haven’t actually been stopped any of the times I’ve
gone out.
It’s early days yet, but Paris is handling this way, way better than I’d have
expected.
YEs, it's early days. For the next days, we need forecast, like in
weather forecast. There is no public forecast of this pandemy.
But there is data. Data is more than just numbers of cases in various
web sites. There is also correlation of cases and the dates and levels
of declaration of confinement. The levels of confinement that arrive
are relatively similar but with different names: close borders, close
restaurants, close schools, close City level 1, close City level 2,
close City level max. Each of these levels has a date, but the precise
date is not centralized somewhere, and worse - not public. One has to
watch thousands of public announcements to understand them. Or to ask
those who one knows in that particular country, based on confidence.
This is my forecast based on yesterday's public statements on TV from
Authority and other public data sources including China and Italy, by
revese engineering and local data to understand French:
The peak of the wave (biggest number of new cases a day) in France
will arrive at earliest somewhere between MArch 26th and MArch
29th. The length of the peak is about 10 to 22 days. At earliest
we start going down the wave starting April 5th, and at latest we
start going down that wave on April 22nd. This going down might be
a rough descent (Codogno city in Italy had 0 cases after 2 weeks
total confinement), or much slower (China Wuhan 0 cases yesterday,
but China total increase New Cases still). That is the horizon.
That might change for the better or for worse with (1) 'mutations' (a
word I dont understand), with (2) the hopeful medication (Chloroquine
of enterprise Sanofi, France; and Favipiravir, China Authority; and
other molecules invoked by Doctors) and (3) capacity of people to
understand restrictions to stay home, understand how propagation and
transmission works and (4) capacity of law enforcement to enforce
restrictions.
To evaluate how a group of people understands what's happening, there
are simple questions: is covid-19 a virus or an illness? is this an
epidemy or a pandemy? One can compare that with how we went through
understanding of AIDS, HIV (SIDA, VIH in French) and the relevant
protections (condoms initially, tri-therapy these days if I understand
it correctly). One can compare that to how we understand SARS (SRAS in
France), H1N1, H5N1 terms.
If we communicate these terms meaningfully then we understand one
another meaningfully.
There is no reason to compare this covid situation to 9/11 - this is
more like a wave, that was more like shock and then go down slowly.
It comes, slowly, but it comes.
Alex, LF/HF 2
And a giant thumbs up to Free, who are keeping my 10G broadband flying along at
an actual, measurable, 10G.
YEs, lucky you. Me I am on Free's ADSL 5mbit/s, I cant dare to upload
all significant data to youtube, I refrain for later to do that. It
saves me energy :-)
LEt me add this to relate to Guidance in the topic of the email. There
is a "handbook-covid19-prevention-treatment-China" in pdf format that
someone sent me. 68 pages, 34mbyte. I did not read it. I received
also other guides in pdf format dedicated to hospital person (the one
that takes care of the ill person), but they are in other languages than
French and English. I think they might all be on the Internet, and I
hope people can access them freely, without intermediaries, and that
they take time when appropriate.
Alex
-Bill
