On Thu, Nov 18, 2021 at 11:37:49AM -0800, John Gilmore wrote:
> Steven Bakker <steven.bak...@ams-ix.net> wrote:
> > > ... the gain is 4 weeks of
> > > extra ip address space in terms of estimated consumption.
> >
> > The burn rate is the best argument I've seen against the idea so far.
> 
> I'm glad you think so, since it's easy to refute.
[snip]
> Now that has ended, and addresses actually cost money in a real market.
[snip more market market market]

"Ended" is an interesting word, given distributions continue 
from the RIRs (eg https://www.arin.net/resources/guide/ipv4/waiting_list/)
as resources are available. Should any one of these ...imaginative
schemes come to pass and drop shiny new v4 space into the IANA
hopper, please do point to the policy where they would be 
distributed in a manner inconsistent with the RIR system, as
your post focused on the secondry transfer market.

The transfer market came into being as a tool to unlock stranded 
rights to use prefixes and a (too mild) friction to nudge IPv6
adoption. Should a pile of v4 be magically made available not
from existing stranded rights, the expectation that somehow
the market would be involved is odd to say the least. I would 
expect if this vein of "decades" of v4 were mined, the transfer
market should correctly react as any other supply/demand system
and prices would drop. 

Any presumptions about "burn rate influenced by pre-exhaustion
land rush" should  be sure to compare hard-landing (ARIN) and 
soft-landing RIRs. 

Cheers,

Joe 


-- 
Posted from my personal account - see X-Disclaimer header.
Joe Provo / Gweep / Earthling 

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