On 6/1/22 1:55 PM, Livingood, Jason via NANOG wrote:
Saying most people don't need more than 25 Mbps is like saying 640k is
>> enough for anybody.
The challenge is any definition of capacity (speed) requirements is only a point-in-time
gauge of sufficiency given the mix of apps popular at the time & any such point-in-time
gauge will look silly in retrospect. ;-) If I were a policy-maker in this space I would
"inflation-adjust" the speeds for the future. In order to adapt to recent changes
in user behavior and applications, I'd do that on a trailing 2-year basis (not too short nor
too long a timeframe) and update the future-need forecast annually. And CAGR could be derived
from a sample across multiple networks or countries. In practice, that would mean looking at
the CAGR for the last 2 years for US and DS and then projecting that growth rate into future
years. So if you say 35% CAGR for both US and DS and project out the commonplace need/usage
then 100 Mbps / 10 Mbps becomes as follows below. If some new apps emerge that start driving
something like US at a higher CAGR then future years automatically get adjusted on an annual
basis.
So what happens if the Next Big Thing requires a lot of upstream? It's
always been sort of a self-fulfilling prophesy that people won't use a
lot of upstream because there isn't enough upstream. The pandemic pretty
much blew that away with video conferencing, etc.
Mike
