On Nov 12, 2010, at 5:52 PM, Sean Donelan wrote: > On Wed, 10 Nov 2010, Curtis, Bruce wrote: >> If we take our current ISP bandwidth and increase it by 50% every >> year for 5 years it would be about twice the 100 Mbps per 1,000 >> students/staff recommendation. > > Is 50% growth each year typical these days? In the dot-com boom days, > people said 100% growth, other people have suggested 20% may be more > reasonable now.
We did see a lower rate of growth after the dot-com boom/bust. However the rate of growth picked up with the popularity of video streaming sites. This site mentions 40 to 50% growth last year and has references to other papers that mention similar growth rates (although some of those papers may now be several years old.) http://www.dtc.umn.edu/mints/home.php So to answer the question I would say that 40 to 50% growth is typical these days, it has been for us. I assume that it will continue for a few years but I'm less confidant speculating that it would still be 40 to 50% in 5 to 7 years. But I wouldn't bet against it either. > A problem with government network capacity > planning/growth forecasts is you will be stuck with whatever you choose, > too high or too low, for many years because the budget cycle is so long. > > It would be great if there was some actual data available. But it seems > more typical to benchmark/compare to do network capacity planning with > other government agencies, so we end up with X-Mbps per Y,000 people. > Yes, I know it depends. 1,000 people downloading data from LHC > experiments will be different from an administrative school office. > The difference is the people using LHC data usually have someone who can > figure out network capacity planning, while the people in an > administrative school office may not have anyone. > > So what is a reasonable network capacity for 1,000 students now and in 5 > years. > > --- Bruce Curtis [email protected] Certified NetAnalyst II 701-231-8527 North Dakota State University
