Also, for a slightly more average-person-friendly view, see Iljitsch's article in Ars Technica: <http://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/news/2011/01/2010-in-ip-addresses-225-million-down-496-million-to-go.ars>
On Tue, Jan 4, 2011 at 6:29 AM, Iljitsch van Beijnum <[email protected]> wrote: > [ (Non-cross)posted to NANOG, PPML, RIPE IPv6 wg, Dutch IPv6 TF. ] > > On the web: > > IPv4: http://www.bgpexpert.com/addrspace2010.php > IPv6: http://www.bgpexpert.com/addrspace-ipv6-2010.php > > The IPv4 one is included below: > > > 2010 IPv4 Address Use Report > > As of January 1, 2011, the number of unused IPv4 addresses is 495.66 million. > Exactly a year earlier, the number of available addresses was 721.06 million. > So we collectively used up 225.4 million addresses in 2010. > > 35 of the 256 the /8s that make up the IPv4 address space have the status > "reserved". 0 and 127 have special meaning and can't be used for normal > purposes. 224 - 239 are used for multicast and 240 - 255 are "reserved for > future use". With only about two years worth of IPv4 addresses remaining on > the shelves, it would seem that that future is here now, but unfortunately, > pretty much all operating systems balk at using a "reserved" address. So > unreserving those addresses means upgrading EVERY system connected to the > Internet. If we're going to do that, we may as well skip those reserved IPv4 > addresses and upgrade to IPv6. Last but not least, there's block 10, which is > the largest of the three address blocks set aside for private use. The > others, 172.16.0.0/12 and 192.168.0.0/16, don't show up as reserved, but are > obviously not available for regular use. > > This makes the total number of usable IPv4 addresses is (256 - 35) * 2^24 - > 2^20 - 2^16 = 3706.65 million addresses. The "IANA global pool" consists of 7 > /8s (117.44 million) are still unused (unallocated): 39/8, 102/8, 103/8, > 104/8, 106/8, 179/8 and 185/8. But there's also a lot of unused space hiding > in the "allocated" and "legacy" categories. Each RIR publishes a list of > address blocks further delegated to ISPs or end users every day on their FTP > servers. If we add up all those blocks, this comes out to 3210.99 million > addresses. So the total number of usable-but-unused IPv4 addresses is 3706.65 > - 3210.99 = 495.66 million. > > Going back to the IANA global pool, these are the changes over the past year: > > Delegated Blocks +/- 2010 > to/status > > AfriNIC 3 +1 > APNIC 42 +8 > ARIN 35 +4 > LACNIC 8 +2 > RIPE NCC 34 +4 > LEGACY 92 > UNALLOCATED 7 -19 > > There is an agreement between IANA and the RIRs that each RIR will get one of > the last five /8s. APNIC has been getting two /8s every three months like > clockwork in 2010. If this continues, they'll be getting numbers 7 and 6 > later this month, and then the final distribution will look like this: > > Delegated Blocks +/- 2010 > to/status > > AfriNIC 4 > APNIC 45 > ARIN 36 > LACNIC 9 > RIPE NCC 35 > LEGACY 92 > UNALLOCATED - > > At this point, it becomes very interesting what the status of the legacy > space is, exactly. The legacy blocks are each "administered" by one of the > RIRs, but does that mean that that RIR is free to further delegate that space > to ISPs and end users? There are 146.92 million unused addresses in legacy > space, including 16.65 million returned by Interop a few months ago. This is > the used versus unused address space administered by each RIR: > > Legacy Allocated > total unused total unused > AfriNIC 33.55 24.85 50.33 27.06 > APNIC 100.66 22.32 704.64 44.38 > ARIN 654.31 60.55 587.20 56.21 > LACNIC - - 134.22 37.39 > RIPE NCC 67.11 5.77 570.43 67.38 > IANA 671.09 16.65 - - > > AfriNIC used up 8.95 million addresses last year. So their current unused > allocated space is good for another three years (if nothing changes) and > their final /8 is worth another almost two years. If they get to use their > legacy space, that buys them another 2.5 years. So unless IPv4 address use > <em>really</em> takes off in Africa, AfriNIC will be handing out addresses > for at least three or four years. > > APNIC is at the opposite end of the spectrum, using up no less than 126.22 > million new IPv4 addresses last year. Even if they get to use the legacy > space they administer on top of three of the last seven /8s and, it's hard to > see how APNIC can avoid having to tell people "no" before the year is out. > However, there is a caveat: in the 2010 APNIC records, there is 6.65 million > addresses worth of space that isn't in the 2011 records. Part of this is > address space returned to APNIC. In other cases, an address block delegated > in a previous year expands or shrinks retroactively. Depending on what the > underlying reason for these changes is, the actual rate at which APNIC and > the other RIRs are giving out address space may be different from what it > seems to be at first glance. > > ARIN, LACNIC, and the RIPE NCC used up 54.55, 17.29, and 75.45 million > addresses, respectively, in 2010. However, ARIN saw 27.24 million addresses > returned, including the 16.65 million from Interop, which is administered in > the ARIN records even though the IANA list doesn't reflect this. For AfriNIC, > LACNIC and the RIPE NCC the numbers of addresses that came back were 0.31, > 0.22, and 22.62 million, respectively. > > With respect to running out of addresses, it's important to realize that the > Pareto principle (the 80/20 rule) applies: out of the 7686 address blocks > given out last year, only 392 (5 percent) were blocks larger than 100,000 > addresses, but those were responsible for 82 percent of the address > <em>space</em> given out. Even when the RIRs are no longer able to give out > those large blocks, they may still be able to fulfill the requests for > address blocks smaller than 10,000 addresses. Last year, 6425 such blocks > were given out, totaling 14.03 million addresses. It really only takes a > single address to be in the content business; it's the ISPs that need a > continuous supply of new addresses to connect new customers. So the address > shortages looming beyond the summer will hit ISPs and their broadband/mobile > customers first and foremost, and the content industry to a much lesser > degree. > > The top 15 IPv4 address holding countries: > > 2011-01-01 2010-01-01 Increase Country > > 1 - US 1519.53 M 1495.13 M 1.6% United States > 2 - CN 277.64 M 232.45 M 19.4% China > 3 - JP 186.82 M 177.15 M 5.5% Japan > 4 - EU 151.80 M 149.48 M 1.6% Multi-country in Europe > 5 (6) KR 103.50 M 77.77 M 33.1% Korea > 6 (5) DE 91.61 M 86.51 M 5.9% Germany > 7 (9) GB 82.25 M 74.18 M 10.9% United Kingdom > 8 - CA 79.53 M 76.96 M 3.3% Canada > 9 - FR 79.29 M 75.54 M 5.0% France > 10 - AU 49.10 M 39.77 M 23.5% Australia > 11 - BR 40.24 M 33.95 M 18.5% Brazil > 12 - IT 37.14 M 33.50 M 10.9% Italy > 13 - RU 34.66 M 28.47 M 21.7% Russia > 14 - TW 31.93 M 27.10 M 17.8% Taiwan > 15 (19) IN 28.70 M 19.42 M 47.8% India > > Because the US holds so much space, the increase of 25 million addresses > seems small, but that's still more than 10% of the address space given out in > 2010. China's growth is slowing down a little at 45 million addresses last > year compared to 50 million in 2009. But other countries in Asia are picking > up the slack and then some: Korea keeps using up large amounts of address > space, and India is now also picking up the pace. The US now has 47.3% of the > address space in use, down from 50.1% a year ago. The other countries in the > top 15 collectively hold 39.7%, up from 38%. That leaves 13% for the rest of > the world, up from 12%. > > Note that I slightly changed the way addresses are counted: previously, all > the legacy blocks that didn't have an RIR listed were assumed to be used > 100%. But with the return of most of the Interop block this is no longer the > case: although ARIN isn't listed as administering the 45/8 block, they > actually are and only have 45.0.0.0/15 listed as in use. >
