On Jan 25, 2011, at 4:20 PM, Tony Hain wrote: > Owen DeLong wrote: >> ...... >> I suspect that there are probably somewhere between 30,000 >> and 120,000 ISPs world wide that are likely to end up with a /32 >> or shorter prefix. > > A /32 is the value that a start-up ISP would have. Assuming that there is a > constant average rate of startups/failures per year, the number of /32's in > the system should remain fairly constant over time. > > Every organization with a *real* customer base should have significantly > shorter than a /32. In particular every organization that says "I can't give > my customers prefix length X because I only have a /32" needs to go back to > ARIN today and trade that in for a *real block*. There should be at least 10 > organizations in the ARIN region that qualify for a /20 or shorter, and most > would likely be /24 or shorter. > > As Owen said earlier, proposal 121 is intended to help people through the > math. Please read the proposal, and even if you don't want to comment on the > PPML list about it, take that useless /32 back to ARIN and get a *real > block* today. > > Tony > > > > Unfortunately, it's hard for them to do that *today*.
That's the other thing proposal 121 is intended to do is help ARIN make better allocations for ISPs. Indeed, a key part of my quoted paragraph above was the "or shorter" phrase. Even in that scenario, though, I expect a typical ISP will use a /28, a moderately large ISP will use a /24, a very large access provider might use a /20, and only a handful of extremely large providers are likely to get /16s even under the generous criteria of proposal 121. Fully deployed, the current internet would probably consume less than a /12 per RIR if every RIR adopted proposal 121. The 50 year projections of internet growth would likely have each RIR invading but not using more than half of their second /12. Even if every RIR gets to 3 /12s in 50 years, that's still only 15/512ths of the initial /3 delegated to unicast space by IETF. There are 6+ more /3s remaining in the IETF pool. Owen
