On Jun 6, 2011, at 2:23 PM, Mark Andrews wrote: > > In message <alpine.bsf.2.00.1106060732190.68...@goat.gigo.com>, Jason Fesler > wr > ites: >>> But anyway, just consider it: a portion of the major websites go >>> IPv6-only for 24 hours. What happens is that well, 99% of the populace >>> can't reach them anymore, as the known ones are down, they start calling >>> and thus overloading the helpdesks of their ISPs. >> >> Won't happen this year or next. Too much money at stake for the web >> sites. Only when IPv4 is single digits or less could this be even >> remotely considered. Even the 0.05% hit for a day was controverial at >> $dayjob. > > IPv4 will never reach those figures. IPv6 isn't preferenced enough for > that to happen and IPv6-only sites have methods of reaching IPv4 only > sites (DS-Lite, NAT64/DNS64).
I think you'll be surprised over time. Given the tendency of the internet to nearly double in size every 2 years or so, it only takes 7 cycles (about 15 years) for the existing network to become a single-digit percentage of the future network. Owen