> -----Original Message-----
> 
> I imagine Netflix is mature enough to track this data as you suggest,
> and that's why they use AWS - downtime isn't a big deal for their
> business unless it gets really, really bad.

There is another possibility that is probably much more widespread amongst AWS 
(and other cloud) customers. Here is the scenario:

You are a small, hungry startup. No capital for servers. Cloud seems great. 
Then, big growth hits! Cloud seems even better - you may have the capital now, 
thanks to friendly VC/public investment/private equity, but you don't have the 
time to catch up. So, keep using cloud. 

Then, the now mid-sized company discovers one day that their use of the cloud 
is no longer economical, if it ever was. They are big enough to use a dedicated 
hardware in collocation or wholesale datacenter solution, with blended transit 
from some upstreams. But the cost to transition out of cloud is big, too. So, 
they might go with a hybrid strategy, at least for a few years. 

This happens all the time. Not saying Netflix is doing this, but lots of other 
folks are. It’s a trap that’s easy to fall into. Especially with rapid growth.

- Dan

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