Hi, Can someone from Telus ping me off-list re:IPv6 deployment. Jack
> -----Original Message----- > From: NANOG [mailto:[email protected]] On Behalf Of Jacques > Latour > Sent: January-04-16 11:45 AM > To: Jared Mauch; Ca By; [email protected] > Subject: RE: Another Big day for IPv6 - 10% native penetration > > Great news and even more impressive is that Canada is the fastest adopter > with ~8% IPv6 penetration, growing from almost 0.5% to 8% in 3 months!!!. > See http://stats.labs.apnic.net/ipv6/CA > > Telus is making a big difference in Canada as the IPv6 adoption leader @ > ~45% IPv6 adoption. > http://stats.labs.apnic.net/ipv6/AS852?c=CA&g=&w=1&x=1 > > Hint, hint, subliminal message here for all Canadian ISPs, IPv6 works ;-) > > So let's shutdown IPv4 on April 4, 2024 > > Bonne Année! > > > > > -----Original Message----- > > From: NANOG [mailto:[email protected]] On Behalf Of Jared > Mauch > > Sent: January-04-16 11:28 AM > > To: Ca By > > Cc: [email protected] > > Subject: Re: Another Big day for IPv6 - 10% native penetration > > > > > > > On Jan 4, 2016, at 11:09 AM, Ca By <[email protected]> wrote: > > > > > >> On Mon, Jan 4, 2016 at 3:26 AM, Neil Harris > > >> <[email protected]> > > wrote: > > >> > > >>> On 02/01/16 15:35, Tomas Podermanski wrote: > > >>> > > >>> Hi, > > >>> > > >>> according to Google's statistics > > >>> (https://www.google.com/intl/en/ipv6/statistics.html) on 31st > > >>> December > > >>> 2015 the IPv6 penetration reached 10% for the very first time. > > >>> Just a little reminder. On 20th Nov 2012 the number was 1%. In > > >>> December we also celebrated the 20th anniversary of IPv6 > > >>> standardization - RFC > > 1883. > > >>> > > >>> I'm wondering when we reach another significant milestone - 50% > > >>> :-) > > >>> > > >>> Tomas > > >> Given the recent doubling growth, and assuming this trend is > > >> following a logistic function, then, rounding the numbers a bit for > > neatness, I get: > > >> > > >> Jan 2016: 10% > > >> Jan 2017: 20% > > >> Jan 2018: 33% > > >> Jan 2019: 50% > > >> Jan 2020: 67% > > >> Jan 2021: 80% > > >> Jan 2022: 90% > > >> > > >> with IPv4 traffic then halving year by year from then on, and IPv4 > > >> switch-off (ie. traffic < 1%) around 2027. > > >> > > >> Neil > > > Just a reminder, that 10% is a global number. > > > > > > The number in the USA is 25% today in general, is 37% for mobile devices. > > > > > > Furthermore, forecasting is a dark art that frequently simply > > > extends the past onto the future. It does not account for > > > purposeful engineering design like the "world IPv6 launch" or iOS updates. > > > > > > For example, once Apple cleanses the app store of IPv4 apps in 2016 > > > as they have committed and pushes one of their ubiquitous iOS > > > updates, you may see substantial jumps over night in IPv6 eyeballs, > > > possibly meaningful moving that 37% number to over 50% in a few shorts > weeks. > > > > > > This will squarely make it clear that IPv4 is minority legacy > > > protocol for all of mobile, and thusly the immediate future of the > > > internet. > > > > I for one welcome the iOS update that brings v6 APN native access to > > my phone, or at least v4v6 APN setting. > > > > I keep hearing rumors it is "coming soon". > > > > This could have a similar step function in the traffic and graphs.
