I am not going to guess on a timeframe. I would like to point out that the youth ignore TV. They no longer have TVs on their rooms. It is all on smartphones or tablets these days. Even with the family in a living room, everyone might be sitting with their own device doing their own thing.

We have a significant share of the customers that have no other TV than OTT streaming. Myself included. Here (Denmark) almost all TV channels are available as OTT streaming. The free national broadcast TV is also available for streaming (for free).

With an Apple TV you can do all the same things that you can do with OTA, cable or satellite. Cheaper (*) and more convenient too. Far from everyone has discovered this yet, but since we cater to people that are cable cutters, a larger than usual share of our customers is doing exactly this.

(*) I believe the OTT solutions are cheaper as long you do not want a lot of sport programming. If you do want sport I believe it is more expensive but you also have more options and content available.

Regards,

Baldur


Den 21/11/2017 kl. 17.58 skrev Mike Hammett:
of the TV they use... through you. That doesn't count OTA, cable, satellite, 
etc.

It won't change significantly any time soon. I know things are changing, but 
it'll still take five or ten years for those changes to significantly change 
traffic patterns.




-----
Mike Hammett
Intelligent Computing Solutions
http://www.ics-il.com

Midwest-IX
http://www.midwest-ix.com

----- Original Message -----

From: "Baldur Norddahl" <baldur.nordd...@gmail.com>
To: nanog@nanog.org
Sent: Tuesday, November 21, 2017 10:52:09 AM
Subject: Re: Broadcast television in an IP world

Den 21. nov. 2017 16.20 skrev "Mike Hammett" <na...@ics-il.net>:

Unicasting what everyone watches live on a random evening would use
significantly more bandwidth than Game of Thrones or whatever OTT drop.
Magnitudes more. It wouldn't even be in the same ballpark.



I agree as of this moment however that will change. Also note that our
customers do 100% of their TV as unicast OTT because that is the only thing
we offer. This does not cause nearly as much problems as you would expect.


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