And now:Ish <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> writes:
From: David Rider <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Subject: [FN] Truth and Compassion for Shoalwater Tribe
Comments: To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Your Sunday editorial on Truth and Compassion for the Shoalwater
Tribe states that "Statistical significance is the scientific
standard that separates negative health outcomes that can be
expected by chance from evidence that signals a true association."
I have taught courses on the use of statistics for analyzing
research findings at both the graduate and undergraduate levels
for 25 years; your description of statistical significance is a
reasonable one.
Using figures published in the Seattle Times in the past month,
12 of 13 pregnancies among women on the Shoalwater Reservation
ended in miscarriage or infant mortality in the past two years.
According to your editorial, the normal rate of such mortalities
"is between 12 to 15 percent." These figures can be used to
compute the likelihood of so many infant mortalities. Using the
more conservative estimate of 15 percent, a simple binomial
expansion (N=13, p=.15, P=12 deaths, Q=1 survivor) indicates that
the probability of this many failed pregnancies is .000000001200152.
Your editorial suggests that "the most compassionate steps public
health officials can take is to counsel the Shoalwaters and the
worried public that the number - and the human tragedies behind
them - could very well be a result of random, rueful chance."
Certainly it is possible that these numbers reflect nothing more
than random, rueful chance. But it is extremely unlikely - only
about one chance in a billion.
Your editorial is irresponsible in failing to include the actual
probability that you so ruefully call "chance." Equally
irresponsible is your failure to mention the probability that so
many pregnancies ended tragically because something other than
chance caused it: .999999998799848.
Public health officials should be investigating the cause of
such dire mortality rates on the Shoalwater Reservation.
People have a right to expect reasonably safe and healthy
conditions in which to live and raise families. Something is
desperately wrong in Shoalwater and the numbers provide overwhelming
evidence of it. The public deserves the truth, and yet your
editorial disguises that truth in a shroud of compassion.
David P. Rider, Ph.D.
Xavier University of Louisiana
New Orleans, LA 70125
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Tsonkwadiyonrat (We are ONE Spirit)
Unenh onhwa' Awayaton
http://www.tdi.net/ishgooda/
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