On Sunday China takes back the last imperial enclave: Portuguese Macao. What then will be Beijing's next quest? Taiwan? A hard nut to swallow. How 'bout the more-easily digestible raisins of the Spratlys, the supposedly oil-rich islands scattered through the South China Sea? There has been a flurry of diplomatic activity over the Spratlys as China's premier, Zhu Rongji, works his way around the neighboring countries that also lay claim to them. The trip was only a partial success. Zhu did his best to give the impression that China is more interested in conciliation than conflict, but his spokesman indicated that China is not prepared to modify its total and exclusive claim to ``the historic waters'' of the South China Sea. Even in recent months, there have been clashes or near clashes between China and the Philippines -- and also between Malaysia and the Philippines and Vietnam and the Philippines. All of the smaller countries are united in believing that the threat from China will hang over them until there is a binding legal document settling the respective rights of each. In the annals of international law -- particularly in the relatively recent, U.N.-brokered Law of the Sea -- China knows full well it has a weak case. In August 1990, China's then-premier Li Peng announced in Singapore that China was prepared to put aside the question of sovereignty and develop the Spratly Islands jointly with neighboring countries. Coming soon after a clash with Vietnam over the occupation of one of the reefs, in which 77 Vietnamese sailors died, the announcement had the look of a significant volte-face. China's deeds failed to match its words. Soon after, China gave the Crestone Oil Company an oil concession on the continental shelf that's claimed by Vietnam and said it would protect the company with force. Again in 1995 the Chinese foreign minister said China was prepared to use the Law of the Sea as a basis for negotiations. Trouble is, as Mark Valencia, an expert at the International Institute of Strategic Studies, observes: ``The Spratly archipelago has been part of the motherland since ancient times and is embedded in the Chinese national psyche.'' Just as China's claim to Taiwan is ambiguous, its claim to the totality of the Spratlys, in any common interpretation of international law, is exceedingly flimsy. The islands are largely uninhabitable, and the Law of the Sea is clear: Rocks that cannot sustain human habitation or an economic life of their own cannot generate exclusive economic zones or continental shelf claims. U.S. policy has been to stay out of the South China Sea dispute. This makes good sense, but it would be useful if the United States would sign and ratify the Law of the Sea -- as all its European allies have done. It is bottled up in Jesse Helms's Senate Foreign Relations Committee, and President Clinton has shown little interest battling Helms over it. MAKE PEACE NOW Indonesia, Philippines, Vietnam and Singapore have ratified it. But China -- taking its cue, or its excuse, from the United States -- has not. Without doubt, the Law of the Sea is the key to ending the Spratly dispute. This would allow for a regional ``common heritage'' area, encouraging cooperative management of semi-enclosed seas. China would gain much: legitimacy for at least part of its rather-weak claim and the stabilization of a dispute that it could settle only by force, putting it in perpetual conflict with most of its neighbors. The time to make peace is now, while there is still peace. ©1999 Jonathan Power ===== Pedro M. Calmon PO BOX 2248 Thibodaux, LA 70310 USA PHONE (504)449-1682 FAX (209)755-5642 ICQ: 48463895 __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Thousands of Stores. Millions of Products. All in one place. Yahoo! Shopping: http://shopping.yahoo.com ============================================== Lista naval Para sair desta lista mande mensagem para: [EMAIL PROTECTED] sem nada no Subject e com o comando a seguir no corpo da msg: "unsubscribe naval" (sem aspas) ==============================================
