Nelayan, Your NFL Picks - (10-1 last week) Comp 5-star pick inside

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2004 NFL - Week 13 You are subscriber #5698 out of 19067 total. Nelayan, Week 12 Recap Week 12 was nearly perfect for us as we went 6-1 ATS and 4-0 on the MoneyLine. It was the first real killer week since we started the 2004 NFL regular season off with the 9-1 ATS run in weeks 1 and 2. Finally our philosophy of selectively going against the public paid off. There were four very nice contrarian underdog plays on Sunday that came through for us with ATS and straight-up wins. You can view all of my previous NFL picks and prior newsletters/write-ups. Congratulations to subscriber "KingDavid" put together 4 parlays with the picks, risking $300 to win $2800. AFC/NFC Disparity How bad is the NFC compared to the AFC? AFC teams are 32-18 vs. their counterparts this season. In the NFC, several teams sitting at 4-7 still have a chance to make the playoffs. Meanwhile, there could be an 11-win team in the AFC that watches from home in January. Very sad. Week 13 Picks Six picks for this Sunday... Your complimentary pick is below. Premium Picks   Good luck this weekend, Nelayan! From Last Week... ***CAROLINA +3 (-110) vs. Tampa Bay *CAROLINA straight-up (+130) vs. Tampa Bay Yes, another contrarian play on the underdog that I view to be the better team. Everyone seems to be on the Bucs this week. They have certainly come back from the dead behind the legs of Michael Pittman and the arm of Brian Griese. After starting 1-5 SU and 1-4-1 ATS, they've bounced back to 3-1 SU and ATS over their last four games and now have a shot at the playoffs in the weak NFC. While a lot of it is due to Brian Griese who I've written about as being much better than most people give him credit for, a lot also has to do with their schedule. When you face play three home games against Chicago, Kansas City and San Francisco, you'd better go 3-0 or at least 2-1. The single loss over the past month? To Atlanta on the road. Now TB is laying a field goal on the road. Seems fishy to me. Meanwhile, no one seems to have noticed the Panthers' resurrengce. Possibly because it's still on the upswing. I think the leauge will take notice ater they beat the Bucs today. Carolina has gone 3-1 ATS in their last four. They beat up on the Cardinals and 49ers in a big way and kept it close against Oakland and Seattle. Yes, three of those opponents were also bad but I was particularly impressed with the win against an up-and-coming Cardinals squad. The Panthers beat them 35-10 and that showed me something. But, none of these reasons are the primary one I like this game. The biggest one is a bit hidden. Did you know that Carolina owns the best red-zone offense in the league? That's right. They score a TD 69% of the time and put it through the uprights 26% of the time the time they get inside the opponent's 20 yard line. That's 95%, my friends. Conversely, Tampa puts up points just 60% of the time. On defense, Carolina also does a better job in the red zone than Tampa. In what figures to be a tight, closely fought battle, I think this is a huge advantage for the Panthers. We'll go three units (3%) on Carolina +2.5 and another 1-star (1%) on Carolina to pull the upset. Result: Carolina 21, Tampa 14- Carolina pulls the upset. *****Carolina +1.5 (-110) vs. NEW ORLEANS (Check latest line) I'm getting right back on the Panthers again this week in a big way. In predicting the Panthers win last week, I noted that the Carolina's resurrgence had yet to be noticed by the league or sports bettors. I predicted that after they beat Tampa Bay, the secret would be out. I was wrong. They still aren't getting the respec they deserve in this one. Carolina is better than New Orleans and is riding a run of solid play and confidence. They should be favored. Instead, we get a very hot team getting points against a poor team. Hallelujah! Despite Carolina's early season troubles this year (they started 1-7 SU and 3-5 ATS), they have actually been amazing on the road. They are 4-1 against the number this year away from home. The Panthers are also 11-2 ATS as a road underdog of a touchdown or less while New Orleans is 1-6 at home vs. division opponents. But let's get back to these teams' recent performances. Carolina is a different team than the one that started 1-7. Over their past three games, all SU and ATS winners, they are averaging 31 points per game and surrendering just 17. New Orleans, on the other hand, has lost by an average score of 20-30 over their past four games. Against good defenses this year (TB, SD, DEN), the Saints haven't scored more than 17 points. The Panthers, behind a hot Jake Delhomme/Mushin Muhammed combination and a rediscovered Nick Goings, will score more than that today against the league's worst defense. Goings has gained 227 yards over the past two games alone. The Panthers believe while the Saints know they aren't going to make it this year. Five stars (5% of your bankroll) on the Panthers plus 1.5 here. (Bet game @ BoDog | Bet game @ BetOnline) See Star-Ratings section below for recommendations on betting amounts. NFL Premium Picks My premium picks packages include my best picks and detailed analysis on every selected game. Choose from:   This week's top selections: $39   A full month of top selections: $119   The remainder of the season: varies   Combination packages with NFL also available BoDog Sportsbook America's Sportsbook CNN, The Washington Post, USA Today, and The New York Times have featured industry leader, BoDog for its customer service, industry leading bonuses, extensive selections of wager and prop types, and the fastest payouts. Sign up from this link to get best sign-up bonuses: Get BoDog Best Bonuses BetOnline.com 20 years of gaming experience With over 20 years gaming experience, BETONLINE.COM caters to all players, big and small. Betonline ensures confidence by keeping all of client funds are kept in trust. 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For tracking purposes on my site, my bankroll is assumed to be an even $5000.   * (1 star) = 1% of bankroll (or $50)   ** (2 star) = 2% of bankroll (or $100)   *** (3 star) = 3% of bankroll (or $150)   **** (4 star) = 4% of bankroll (or $200)   ***** (5 star) = 5% of bankroll (or $250)   ****** (6 star) = 6% of bankroll (or $300) To determine your bet amount, you should simply use the percentages below, multiplied by your specific bankroll. It is my strong recommendation that you never bet more than 10% of your bankroll on any given game - ever! You should usually bet just a few percent. There are no such thing as locks. See my write-up on Bankroll Management. About This Newsletter   Complimentary Picks Every Week This newlsetter is for designed to help sports bettors improve their winning percentage. Each newsletter contains handicapping information, analysis, trends and a complimentary pick. I prominently post all of my picks with results so you can track how I perform. 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