Original to:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/oct/29/observer-view-independence-catalonia
The Observer view on independence for Catalonia
It is surely not beyond the wit of Catalans and Spaniards to work out a
form of amicable association that both can live with
The Observer, Sunday 29 October 2017
The imposition of direct rule in Catalonia is, at best, a stopgap
measure that will do little to resolve, and may seriously aggravate, the
long-standing problem of the region’s troubled and rivalrous
relationship with Madrid. Mariano Rajoy, Spain’s prime minister, says
that, in the end, he had no choice but to take the “nuclear option” of
sacking Catalonia’s government and placing himself and his ministers in
charge. But while his actions may calm the situation in the short term –
and the tense days to come will be determine whether that is the case –
Rajoy has set a time bomb ticking that could ultimately explode in his
face.
The fresh regional elections Rajoy has scheduled for 21 December promise
to be a titanic battle of wills between those who passionately believe
in Catalonia’s future as a sovereign republic and those who are equally
passionate about upholding the union with Spain. The polls will, in
effect, become the referendum on Catalan independence that the Madrid
government has fought so hard to prevent. The regional election in 2015
was cast in a similar light by Artur Mas, the then leader of the
independence forces, but he failed to secure an absolute majority. In
December, his successors will hope for a more decisive outcome.
One of many problems with this scenario is the as yet unanswered
question of whether Carles Puigdemont, the current Catalan president,
and other senior figures in his pro-independence coalition will contest,
or be allowed to contest, the election. Prosecutors in Madrid are
planning to file charges of rebellion against Puigdemont that carry a
penalty of up to 30 years in jail. Prompted by Rajoy, Spain’s
constitutional court is expected to rule that last Friday’s declaration
of independence by the Catalan assembly was illegal. All 70 MPs who
voted for it potentially face arrest, as do civil servants or police
officers who reject direct rule.
How can Rajoy hope to mount a free, fair and credible election if his
principal opponents are in jail or on the run? How can there be an open,
democratic debate if television and radio stations and newspapers deemed
to be biased in favour of independence are brought under state control?
Who in Catalonia, or internationally, would credit the results of such a
poll? If the Madrid authorities persist in their apparent determination
to punish the secessionist leadership, an election that may represent
their best chance of ending the crisis will be condemned as a travesty.
It would certainly be boycotted by many Catalans. It will be doomed from
the start.
Such considerations are but one reason, among many, why Rajoy must now
tread very carefully – or risk blowing himself up. Dialogue, not
retribution, should be his aim. It is far from clear whether Puigdemont
and his leftwing allies, specialists in rash, provocative and
inflammatory behaviour, will quietly give themselves up to a Spanish
justice system they understandably distrust. It is unclear whether
Catalan public sector workers, security forces, labour unions and
university students will tamely submit to Madrid’s diktats. Although the
immediate reaction to Rajoy’s démarche has been muted, there are calls
for a general strike tomorrow. Tensions could quickly escalate.
The great nightmare, for both sides, is the possibility that the attempt
to enforce central government authority, gathering pace in the coming
days amid widening civil disobedience and resistance on the streets,
will trigger a descent into violence. Rajoy and Puigdemont both have a
duty to prevent such a deterioration. Both need to exhibit a responsible
judiciousness and sense of proportion that has too frequently been
lacking.
This means, for Rajoy, no more incendiary arrests of key opponents or
police crackdowns, no acts of political revenge and no playing to the
hardline unionist gallery in Madrid. Now that the high point of the
crisis has arrived, he must make a courageous, practical commitment to
openly discuss the best way forward.
For his part, Puigdemont must eschew the gesture politics and
vainglorious posturing that have characterised his approach.
Independence for Catalonia is a respectable ambition. But it cannot be
conjured into existence by otiose declarations, specious parliamentary
manoeuvres, media manipulation and spin, misuse of public funds and the
intimidation of ordinary citizens. To become a reality, independence
requires the clear majority in favour within Catalonia that it presently
lacks, the maximum possible degree of agreement with the Spanish state
and people and the support of the international community. These
conditions have not yet been met. The case has not yet been made. It
could be. If Puigdemont cannot make the leap from agitator to statesman,
he should not wait for the knock on the door. He must step aside and let
somebody else try.
Advertisement
The stakes for Catalonia, Spain and Europe are incredibly high. If
meaningful elections do take place in December, they could produce
another pro-independence administration in Barcelona with an enhanced
majority and an undeniable mandate for secession. Such an outcome could
spell the end of Rajoy’s premiership – and of Spain as a unified state.
Alternatively, a majority of Catalans could vote to remain, influenced
by the ever more obvious economic consequences of secession, as banks,
businesses and investors relocate and Spaniards boycott Catalan
products. Yet would the struggle for independence then be over? Not at
all. It would merely be deferred.
The Catalan dilemma is one, dramatic, illustration of a bigger problem
for the many European nation states that face secessionist pressures,
namely, the unresolved question of the right to self-determination.
Respect for the equal rights of national minorities is one of the
European Union’s core values, incorporated in the EU’s founding treaty
and charter of fundamental rights. The UN charter plainly states that a
people has the right to freely choose their sovereignty and
international status without interference. But nowhere in international
law is it laid down how such a decision is properly made, what it
entails (for example, autonomy, federation or outright independence) or,
indeed, what in this context constitutes “a people”.
Given the existential reluctance of established states to yield
territory and power, this conundrum has no easy solution, whether it is
played out in Scotland, Corsica or Upper Silesia (or in the American
colonies in 1776). But where the law fails, common sense should prevail.
Catalonia is, by most measures, a prosperous and successful place. Its
people do not suffer hunger, preventable diseases or military
oppression. They are not murdered, raped or displaced (unlike millions
in recently independent South Sudan). Catalans, on the whole, like
Spaniards, on the whole, lead a fortunate, peaceful, privileged
existence. Barcelona, like London, is a model international city, where
divisions of nationality, race, colour and creed increasingly belong to
the past. In such propitious circumstances, it is surely not beyond the
wit of Catalans and Spaniards to work out a form of amicable association
that both can live with. To fight would be self-indulgent foolishness.
# distributed via <nettime>: no commercial use without permission
# <nettime> is a moderated mailing list for net criticism,
# collaborative text filtering and cultural politics of the nets
# more info: http://mx.kein.org/mailman/listinfo/nettime-l
# archive: http://www.nettime.org contact: [email protected]
# @nettime_bot tweets mail w/ sender unless #ANON is in Subject:
