original to:
http://hungarianfreepress.com/2018/03/16/orbans-threat-of-revenge-has-fired-up-the-hungarian-opposition/
Orbán’s threat of revenge has fired up the Hungarian opposition
March 16, 2018 3:55 pm·
Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s decision to use his speech on a Hungarian
national holiday to explicitly threaten legal and political revenge
against his opponents has opposition politicians, journalists, academics
and civil liberties activists wondering if the election on 8 April is,
indeed, a “do or die” situation. The most recent Medián poll, released
this week, shows that Fidesz is set to win a majority on 8 April, yet
Mr. Orbán’s language was more becoming of a rattled dictator who after
years of invincibility now fears that there is actually a chance that
his regime might collapse.
Zoltán Lakner, a political scientists and editor of 168 Óra, suggested
that Fidesz is constantly producing internal polls and that it is
possible that these numbers tell a different story than the public ones.
We know from the Medián poll that even a series of corruption scandals
and a surprise election loss in Hódmezővásárhely has not discouraged two
million hard-core Fidesz voters. Medián has Fidesz at 54% among decided
voters, with Jobbik at 16% , MSZP-Párbeszéd at 12%, followed by the
Democratic Coalition at 9% and Politics Can Be Different (LMP) at 5%.
There are 600,000 allegedly undecided voters who are nonetheless
committed to voting on 8 April–it is believed that many of them are
purposefully concealing their intentions from pollsters and this does
add some uncertainty to the outcome of the vote.
As for Fidesz voters, especially the tens of thousands bused to Budapest
who participated yesterday in the so-called Peace March alongside the
regime’s Polish fans: they truly behave like members of a cult–closed
off from critical media reports and brainwashed by clever and cynical
political communicators. Although they absurdly refer to this event as a
Peace March, they physically attacked conservative journalist György
Unyatyinszki of Magyar Nemzet, punched him in the ribs and threatened to
drown him in the Danube. One of the security guards hired by the Peace
March’s organizer, the (Civil Összefogás Fórum – CÖF) said with a smile
that Unyatyinszki was hit because he asked too many questions. One
cannot question Viktor Orbán. Peace March cult members declared that Mr.
Orbán is the saviour of the Hungarian nation.
Gábor Török, a political scientist who previously had very close ties
with Mr. Orbán and Fidesz, argued that explicitly threatening people who
do not support Fidesz in a speech on a national holiday may prove to be
a serious strategic mistake. While this sort of war language does
successfully motivate and mobilize Fidesz supporters, it is likely to
also mobilize opposition voters who may have otherwise sat out the 8
April election. And historically, the key to defeating Fidesz is high
turn-out. In his blog, Mr. Török argued that Mr. Orbán could have used
other channels to send a message to people like Lajos Simicska, who are
causing him headaches–but a speech on a major national holiday was an
inappropriate venue for this. It appears as though Mr. Orbán said what
was on his heart, but not what is politically practical for him at this
juncture.
I can certainly say that Mr. Orbán’s open threat against those opposing
Fidesz fired up opposition voters perhaps more than anything
else–including the recent corruption scandals or the results of
Hódmezővásárhely. The very existence of the Hungarian opposition beyond
April–including what remains of the critical media and the NGO
sector–now appears at stake. A historian friend of mine, respected in
his field and who has always been more of a conservative, certainly
never aligned with the old MSZP-SZDSZ type liberal left, suggested that
he could accept Mr. Orbán’s eventual exile to Russia, following in the
footsteps of Stalinist dictator Mátyás Rákosi. But he also envisioned an
angry Hungarian mob lynching the prime minister, using a tree in the
hills of Buda. That is a disturbing and gory outcome, but one
increasingly put forward by an ever-angrier “silent majority” of
Hungarians.
These scenes of violence become a reality if it becomes clear that Mr.
Orbán will not, under any condition, cede power peacefully. And this is
one take-away from his speech.
Jobbik spokesperson Ádám Mirkóczki said on Friday that Viktor Orbán is
“mentally ill.” He added that the Fidesz platform contains a single
word: revenge.
Gergely Karácsony of MSZP-P said that what Mr. Orbán said on 15 March is
typical of ruthless dictators: he put all voters who want a change in
government on notice, that their decision will result in legal and
political ramifications.
Viktor Szigetvári of Együtt, however, spoke out the most forcefully:
Prime Minister Orbán has declared civil war in Hungary.
Regardless of the outcome of the April election, Hungary appears to be
heading in a critical, potentially violent direction. If Mr. Orbán wins
a clear majority, he has now announced that nobody should expect a
period of peaceful consolidation. He will likely move more in the
direction of Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. If Fidesz fails to win a
majority, there is only one thing that brings all opposition parties
together: a growing desire to hold the criminal alliance called Fidesz
and its politicians to account for the last eight years. Mr. Orbán and
the people around him know this–and this is why it is difficult to see
him giving up power peacefully.
also interesting:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/mar/30/danger-hungary-verge-full-blown-autocracy-viktor-orban-vengeance
(george Szirtes: Viktor Orbán presumes victory and threatens vengeance
to anyone who opposes him. Europe must see what he is doing )
But for now:
Kellemes Húsvéti Ünnepeket Mindenkinek!
;-)
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