Hi Felix,

First, the big picture: Covid 19 has really messed things up. The US has 40 
million unemployed people. Most folks are one degree away from someone who has 
died, and there is no coherent strategy to slow and eventually stop the 
pandemic. People are angry just as a base line. The US is past the precariat 
and onto sheer desperation for millions. On top of that the Senate is refusing 
to send the states aid. The eviction ban will be lifted in some states in June 
with more joining in each month. Supplemented unemployment relief runs out in 
July. And let’s not forget the expected record heat (bad in and of itself, but 
also leads to more and worse fires and hurricanes). I can’t imagine what this 
place will look like by August. 

The US has a long tradition race-based uprisings. There comes a point where 
“keep on keeping on” is no longer tenable, and as Langston Hughes says, urban 
areas explode. Riots, protest, and confrontation are the only possibilities 
open, since poor minorities are disenfranchised from any other options. 
Abstractly, in the current episode, the immediate concern that has set this 
uprising in motion is the multi-tiered justice system. Poor minorities tend to 
be incarcerated longer and disproportionately. (A lot of this skewing is 
because they can’t afford bail.) They tend to get harsher prison sentences, and 
laws are written that disproportionately impact these communities. And, the 
immediate concrete cause of this uprising is that innocent people in these 
communities can be murdered by police without consequences for the murderer. 
(An officer need only say that they felt threatened, and all is forgiven). The 
police are set against the communities they are supposed to protect. Contrast 
this with the presidential orders for federal investigative agencies to stop 
looking into white-collar crimes. Government criminals (like Paul Manafort) 
being released from prison early. And then there is Trump’s realm of justice 
where he and his allies are above the law. The murder of George Floyd lit the 
fuse on the cocktail, but the problems are deeply structural.

Is anything breaking? No, nothing is breaking. The structure is safe in spite 
of this uprising being more multi-racial and class diverse than any I have ever 
seen. The two systems of law will stay in place. The law will be biased in 
favor of the rich and biased against the poor and minorities. At best, what 
these uprisings produce is reforms and campaign rhetoric. There is a chance 
that sentencing guidelines could get rewritten to not be so harsh. A lot of 
local movements are already working on this and making limited progress. There 
is a chance we could see some police department restructuring in a way that 
make the police less of a hostile force. (The LA riots in the 90s achieved this 
reform). There is a chance that the “I felt threatened” defense (law based on a 
subjective state and peculiar to law enforcement) will be weakened in some way. 
And finally there is a chance bail could be done away with.  That’s as good as 
it’s going to get.

Rioting becomes a necessary tactic, because it’s the only way the media will 
cover the problem. They have no interest what so ever in peaceful protests. If 
those who are most oppressed and exploited want a voice with a national 
platform to distribute it, violence and destruction is required. And in the US, 
plenty of desperate people are willing to carry this out.

Just as a sidenote: The idea of a second civil war (the Boogaloo) is utter 
nonsense. This is an idea concocted by a tiny population of people that in no 
way could even come close to mustering the forces we are seeing in this 
uprising. Trump in the White House, Charlotesville, and the Bundy Uprising is 
about as good as it’s going to get for them.

Steve






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