Possible Outcomes of the Russo-Ukrainian War and China’s Choice
by US-China Perception Monitor March 12, 2022
Hu Wei is the vice-chairman of the Public Policy Research Center of the
Counselor’s Office of the State Council, the chairman of Shanghai Public
Policy Research Association, the chairman of the Academic Committee of
the Chahar Institute, a professor, and a doctoral supervisor.
Written on March 5, 2022. Translated by Jiaqi Liu on March 12, 2022.
https://uscnpm.org/2022/03/12/hu-wei-russia-ukraine-war-china-choice/
The Russo-Ukrainian War is the most severe geopolitical conflict since
World War II and will result in far greater global consequences than
September 11 attacks. At this critical moment, China needs to accurately
analyze and assess the direction of the war and its potential impact on
the international landscape. At the same time, in order to strive for a
relatively favorable external environment, China needs to respond
flexibly and make strategic choices that conform to its long-term interests.
Russia’s ‘special military operation’ against Ukraine has caused great
controvsery in China, with its supporters and opponents being divided
into two implacably opposing sides. This article does not represent any
party and, for the judgment and reference of the highest decision-making
level in China, this article conducts an objective analysis on the
possible war consequences along with their corresponding countermeasure
options.
I. Predicting the Future of the Russo-Ukrainian War
1. Vladimir Putin may be unable to achieve his expected goals, which
puts Russia in a tight spot. The purpose of Putin’s attack was to
completely solve the Ukrainian problem and divert attention from
Russia’s domestic crisis by defeating Ukraine with a blitzkrieg,
replacing its leadership, and cultivating a pro-Russian government.
However, the blitzkrieg failed, and Russia is unable to support a
protracted war and its associated high costs. Launching a nuclear war
would put Russia on the opposite side of the whole world and is
therefore unwinnable. The situations both at home and abroad are also
increasingly unfavorable. Even if the Russian army were to occupy
Ukraine’s capital Kyiv and set up a puppet government at a high cost,
this would not mean final victory. At this point, Putin’s best option is
to end the war decently through peace talks, which requires Ukraine to
make substantial concessions. However, what is not attainable on the
battlefield is also difficult to obtain at the negotiating table. In any
case, this military action constitutes an irreversible mistake.
2. The conflict may escalate further, and the West’s eventual
involvement in the war cannot be ruled out. While the escalation of the
war would be costly, there is a high probability that Putin will not
give up easily given his character and power. The Russo-Ukrainian war
may escalate beyond the scope and region of Ukraine, and may even
include the possibility of a nuclear strike. Once this happens, the U.S.
and Europe cannot stay aloof from the conflict, thus triggering a world
war or even a nuclear war. The result would be a catastrophe for
humanity and a showdown between the United States and Russia. This final
confrontation, given that Russia’s military power is no match for
NATO’s, would be even worse for Putin.
3. Even if Russia manages to seize Ukraine in a desperate gamble, it is
still a political hot potato. Russia would thereafter carry a heavy
burden and become overwhelmed. Under such circumstances, no matter
whether Volodymyr Zelensky is alive or not, Ukraine will most likely set
up a government-in-exile to confront Russia in the long term. Russia
will be subject both to Western sanctions and rebellion within the
territory of Ukraine. The battle lines will be drawn very long. The
domestic economy will be unsustainable and will eventually be dragged
down. This period will not exceed a few years.
4. The political situation in Russia may change or be disintegrated at
the hands of the West. After Putin’s blitzkrieg failed, the hope of
Russia’s victory is slim and Western sanctions have reached an
unprecedented degree. As people’s livelihoods are severely affected and
as anti-war and anti-Putin forces gather, the possibility of a political
mutiny in Russia cannot be ruled out. With Russia’s economy on the verge
of collapse, it would be difficult for Putin to prop up the perilous
situation even without the loss of the Russo-Ukrainian war. If Putin
were to be ousted from power due to civil strife, coup d’état, or
another reason, Russia would be even less likely to confront the West.
It would surely succumb to the West, or even be further dismembered, and
Russia’s status as a great power would come to an end.
II. Analysis of the Impact of Russo-Ukrainian war On International Landscape
1. The United States would regain leadership in the Western world, and
the West would become more united. At present, public opinion believes
that the Ukrainian war signifies a complete collapse of U.S. hegemony,
but the war would in fact bring France and Germany, both of which wanted
to break away from the U.S., back into the NATO defense framework,
destroying Europe’s dream to achieve independent diplomacy and
self-defense. Germany would greatly increase its military budget;
Switzerland, Sweden, and other countries would abandon their neutrality.
With Nord Stream 2 put on hold indefinitely, Europe’s reliance on US
natural gas will inevitably increase. The US and Europe would form a
closer community of shared future, and American leadership in the
Western world will rebound.
2. The “Iron Curtain” would fall again not only from the Baltic Sea to
the Black Sea, but also to the final confrontation between the
Western-dominated camp and its competitors. The West will draw the line
between democracies and authoritarian states, defining the divide with
Russia as a struggle between democracy and dictatorship. The new Iron
Curtain will no longer be drawn between the two camps of socialism and
capitalism, nor will it be confined to the Cold War. It will be a
life-and-death battle between those for and against Western democracy.
The unity of the Western world under the Iron Curtain will have a siphon
effect on other countries: the U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy will be
consolidated, and other countries like Japan will stick even closer to
the U.S., which will form an unprecedentedly broad democratic united front.
3. The power of the West will grow significantly, NATO will continue to
expand, and U.S. influence in the non-Western world will increase. After
the Russo-Ukrainian War, no matter how Russia achieves its political
transformation, it will greatly weaken the anti-Western forces in the
world. The scene after the 1991 Soviet and Eastern upheavals may repeat
itself: theories on “the end of ideology” may reappear, the resurgence
of the third wave of democratization will lose momentum, and more third
world countries will embrace the West. The West will possess more
“hegemony” both in terms of military power and in terms of values and
institutions, its hard power and soft power will reach new heights.
4. China will become more isolated under the established framework. For
the above reasons, if China does not take proactive measures to respond,
it will encounter further containment from the US and the West. Once
Putin falls, the U.S. will no longer face two strategic competitors but
only have to lock China in strategic containment. Europe will further
cut itself off from China; Japan will become the anti-China vanguard;
South Korea will further fall to the U.S.; Taiwan will join the
anti-China chorus, and the rest of the world will have to choose sides
under herd mentality. China will not only be militarily encircled by the
U.S., NATO, the QUAD, and AUKUS, but also be challenged by Western
values and systems.
III. China’s Strategic Choice
1. China cannot be tied to Putin and needs to be cut off as soon as
possible. In the sense that an escalation of conflict between Russia and
the West helps divert U.S. attention from China, China should rejoice
with and even support Putin, but only if Russia does not fall. Being in
the same boat with Putin will impact China should he lose power. Unless
Putin can secure victory with China’s backing, a prospect which looks
bleak at the moment, China does not have the clout to back Russia. The
law of international politics says that there are “no eternal allies nor
perpetual enemies,” but “our interests are eternal and perpetual.” Under
current international circumstances, China can only proceed by
safeguarding its own best interests, choosing the lesser of two evils,
and unloading the burden of Russia as soon as possible. At present, it
is estimated that there is still a window period of one or two weeks
before China loses its wiggle room. China must act decisively.
2. China should avoid playing both sides in the same boat, give up being
neutral, and choose the mainstream position in the world. At present,
China has tried not to offend either side and walked a middle ground in
its international statements and choices, including abstaining from the
UN Security Council and the UN General Assembly votes. However, this
position does not meet Russia’s needs, and it has infuriated Ukraine and
its supporters as well as sympathizers, putting China on the wrong side
of much of the world. In some cases, apparent neutrality is a sensible
choice, but it does not apply to this war, where China has nothing to
gain. Given that China has always advocated respect for national
sovereignty and territorial integrity, it can avoid further isolation
only by standing with the majority of the countries in the world. This
position is also conducive to the settlement of the Taiwan issue.
3. China should achieve the greatest possible strategic breakthrough and
not be further isolated by the West. Cutting off from Putin and giving
up neutrality will help build China’s international image and ease its
relations with the U.S. and the West. Though difficult and requiring
great wisdom, it is the best option for the future. The view that a
geopolitical tussle in Europe triggered by the war in Ukraine will
significantly delay the U.S. strategic shift from Europe to the
Indo-Pacific region cannot be treated with excessive optimism. There are
already voices in the U.S. that Europe is important, but China is more
so, and the primary goal of the U.S. is to contain China from becoming
the dominant power in the Indo-Pacific region. Under such circumstances,
China’s top priority is to make appropriate strategic adjustments
accordingly, to change the hostile American attitudes towards China, and
to save itself from isolation. The bottom line is to prevent the U.S.
and the West from imposing joint sanctions on China.
4. China should prevent the outbreak of world wars and nuclear wars and
make irreplaceable contributions to world peace. As Putin has explicitly
requested Russia’s strategic deterrent forces to enter a state of
special combat readiness, the Russo-Ukrainian war may spiral out of
control. A just cause attracts much support; an unjust one finds little.
If Russia instigates a world war or even a nuclear war, it will surely
risk the world’s turmoil. To demonstrate China’s role as a responsible
major power, China not only cannot stand with Putin, but also should
take concrete actions to prevent Putin’s possible adventures. China is
the only country in the world with this capability, and it must give
full play to this unique advantage. Putin’s departure from China’s
support will most likely end the war, or at least not dare to escalate
the war. As a result, China will surely win widespread international
praise for maintaining world peace, which may help China prevent
isolation but also find an opportunity to improve its relations with the
United States and the West.
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