Hello Brian and all,
I also watched the video of Tim Lenton's talk. I am quite surprised to
see that he does not mention at any time the question of energy
resources and mining resources that are supposed to accompany the
transition to renewable energy or electric mobility. This is an
For renewable energies, we must not forget that the metals used in wind
turbines and solar panels, as well as the manufacturing processes for
solar panels, are mostly obtained from coal-based energy, in China or in
other countries with low production costs. Without the very low cost of
coal, there is no low-cost renewable energy! Under the current
production conditions of solar and wind power in Asia, renewable energy
for the whole world would be a massive acceleration of global warming
through CO2 emissions.
Same problem for electric mobility, to replace 1.4 billion thermic cars.
Moreover, there is not enough low-cost lithium, nickel, copper, aluminum
and other metals to transform the entire world's car fleet from thermal
to electric, not to mention the electrical production needed to move
these vehicles. It is estimated that we will only be able to operate one
tenth of the current car fleet when oil becomes too scarce, in less than
20 years. And forget about hydrogen, which has no economic/ecologic
future, except for a few niches. From production to traction, hydrogen
has only 25% efficiency...
Economic activity is directly based on low-cost transport, from the
extraction of raw materials to the marketing of finished products.
Especially for goods with complexity, like digital tools, when the
finished product is the result of globalized industrialization. But the
total global production of oil is now on the plateau phase and will soon
The decline of all global economic activities is therefore unavoidable
in the short term. In this context, green growth based on renewables is
materially impossible, even for rich countries, because driven by
high-tech, and high-tech needs traditional growth and has no resilience
in the face of climate disruption, geopolitics and the finiteness of
Forget Davos. Recent actuality about Exxon mobil and Total knowing
perfectly the CO2 catastrophe since the seventies, as well as other oil
companies, proves once again that those people refuse to "look up".
Shareholders are mass-murderers.
Le 20/01/2023 à 21:37, Brian Holmes a écrit :
"Positive tipping points to avoid climate tipping points" (5). After
recapping the various cascade scenarios of the current climate
emergency, he goes on to discuss reinforcing feedbacks that could push
global society out of the current business-as-usual trajectory.
Basically he's talking about cheap power from renewables and rising
sales of electric cars as the drivers for major transformations in the
sectors of battery storage, hydrogen fuel-cell production and "green
fertiliser" (nitrogen produced without the use of methane feedstocks).
The video is extraordinary because of the intense questions asked by
the rebellious young scientists, including how does he deal
emotionally with his own knowledge and whether it would be important
to examine negative social tipping cascades, like the effects of
European colonization of the Americas.
Do you think it can be done? Will Davos Man finally answer the
ecological question? Will you sign on too? Can a nudge in time save
nine degrees of global warming?
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