Hello Brian and all,

I also watched the video of Tim Lenton's talk. I am quite surprised to see that he does not mention at any time the question of energy resources and mining resources that are supposed to accompany the transition to renewable energy or electric mobility. This is an essential point.

For renewable energies, we must not forget that the metals used in wind turbines and solar panels, as well as the manufacturing processes for solar panels, are mostly obtained from coal-based energy, in China or in other countries with low production costs. Without the very low cost of coal, there is no low-cost renewable energy! Under the current production conditions of solar and wind power in Asia, renewable energy for the whole world would be a massive acceleration of global warming through CO2 emissions.

Same problem for electric mobility, to replace 1.4 billion thermic cars. Moreover, there is not enough low-cost lithium, nickel, copper, aluminum and other  metals to transform the entire world's car fleet from thermal to electric, not to mention the electrical production needed to move these vehicles. It is estimated that we will only be able to operate one tenth of the current car fleet when oil becomes too scarce, in less than 20 years. And forget about hydrogen, which has no economic/ecologic future, except for a few niches. From production to traction, hydrogen has only 25% efficiency...

Economic activity is directly based on low-cost transport, from the extraction of raw materials to the marketing of finished products. Especially for goods with complexity, like digital tools, when the finished product is the result of globalized industrialization. But the total global production of oil is now on the plateau phase and will soon decline. https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2022

The decline of all global economic activities is therefore unavoidable in the short term. In this context, green growth based on renewables is materially impossible, even for rich countries, because driven by high-tech, and high-tech needs traditional growth and has no resilience in the face of climate disruption, geopolitics and the finiteness of certain resources......

Forget Davos. Recent actuality about Exxon mobil and Total knowing perfectly the CO2 catastrophe since the seventies, as well as other oil companies, proves once again that those people refuse to "look up". Shareholders are mass-murderers.


Le 20/01/2023 à 21:37, Brian Holmes a écrit :
 "Positive tipping points to avoid climate tipping points" (5). After recapping the various cascade scenarios of the current climate emergency, he goes on to discuss reinforcing feedbacks that could push global society out of the current business-as-usual trajectory. Basically he's talking about cheap power from renewables and rising sales of electric cars as the drivers for major transformations in the sectors of battery storage, hydrogen fuel-cell production and "green fertiliser" (nitrogen produced without the use of methane feedstocks). The video is extraordinary because of the intense questions asked by the rebellious young scientists, including how does he deal emotionally with his own knowledge and whether it would be important to examine negative social tipping cascades, like the effects of European colonization of the Americas.

Do you think it can be done? Will Davos Man finally answer the ecological question? Will you sign on too? Can a nudge in time save nine degrees of global warming?

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