Hi Brian,
thank you so much for this very reasonable request for comments. I've
had already written off nettime (as "NATO-shit-list" .. as one
participant used to frame it).
Your bleak view looks very likely, but it's not the only possible
outcome. So, against all odds, let me sketch a vaguely 'positive'
possibility.
- the fact that most of the world does not align with the "West" makes
it possible to a) avoid the NeoCon-project of a war against China (bcs
it is already lost) and to b) overcome the phase of finance colonization
that exploited most the world for the last 60 years.
- the defeat of NATO could lead to a "decolonization" of Western Euroipe
(not that this by itself leads to positive results. Repressive "liberal"
fascism remains as likely an outcome as some sort of independence.)
- inflation could remain a one-time price shock (after having cut living
standards by 15%), switching back to debt deflation. (bad enough)
- the US could see a replacement of the failed NeoCons by ... I don't
know what ... either Isolationists for the better ... or worse the
MAGA-Bannon-Trump-Armageddon fraction.
- a post-hegemonial multi-polar world could finally create the
conditions to get together and to tackle the real problems like climate
change.
- it increasingly looks as if AI is at the top of its current hype cycle.
What to do: align with the South to overcome Western oligarchy.
Re-create democratic conditions in those countries that like to call
themselves "democratic".
However, my impression is that there are very many people whose doubts
about neocon nato-ism keep growing.
Stefan
Am 12.02.23 um 20:50 schrieb Brian Holmes:
I wonder how nettimers from different perspectives around the world see
the current, remarkably tense international situation? Where do you
think all the anxieties of war, economic competition, natural disaster
and climate change are going to lead in the near future? How do you
think one should intervene?
-- There's a war on in Europe, which is a proxy war that pits NATO
against Russia, via the fighting force of Ukraine. Definitely check out
the list of equipment which the US alone has sent:
https://newleftreview.org/sidecar/posts/sleepwalking-elites
<https://newleftreview.org/sidecar/posts/sleepwalking-elites> (list
begins in paragraph 3)
-- There's likely to be a second refugee crisis in the EU due to the
earthquake in Turkey and Syria as well (I mean, added to the exodus from
Ukraine).
-- There are rapidly rising tensions between the US and China, with this
week's US airspace-defence operations visibly influenced by domestic
get-tough politics, and a lot of uncertainty as to whether China will
try to use a nationalist, rally-around-the-flag effect to quash the
social protest and state-delegitimation brought by the zero-covid
fiasco. As part of all this, an industrial re-orientation is being
attempted from the US side (CHIPS act, electric-car subsidies for
nationally made products). I am not clear if the EU, and especially
Germany, participates in this reorientation, or not.
-- Lower-income countries dependent on international finance have had to
absorb the interest-rate consequences of pandemic inflation in the rich
countries, leading to stalled development and left-right conflicts.
-- Fires, droughts and floods have made climate change into an openly
admitted crisis, an economic factor in its own right, and a crucial
element in strategic economic military planning.
-- And in parallel to all that, another technology shift is coming
through the application of AI to existing industrial and communications
technologies.
I think those are undeniable factors whose spillovers must affect most
people somehow, wherever you live, so I'm totally curious what you make
of this conjuncture.
From my viewpoint, I think that the neoliberal model of society has now
irretrievably broken down, leaving vast psycho-social disarray and
increasing conflict as state and corporate actors begin trying new
strategies. Currently there is a lot of happy talk about "solving the
climate crisis" with solar panels and electric cars, and I'm glad about
it too, but I think this masks the enormity of the changes ahead. On the
one hand, the reason of state calls simultaneously for protective
reterritorialization (nationalism, militarized borders, renegotiated
alliances) and, in a diametrically opposite way, for intensified
international regulatory and planning regimes, as well as a certain
coordination of production to achieve energy transitions. On the other
hand, populations at all class levels seem to sense that these changes
will again be highly disruptive (I mean, as they were in the 80s-90s
when neoliberalism came in) - so you have an incredible repositioning
going on at the molecular level, not only politically but above all,
psychologically. It's noteworthy that in the US, almost none of the
sprawling social-welfare package that was originally intended to
accompany the Green Capitalism legislation made it through, and more
broadly, I don't think capitalist societies have overcome their basic
social contradictions. Instead they are being exacerbated, which makes
it much, much harder to steer the big ships of state...
It all adds up to stormy weather ahead, and I was just interrupted by a
friend telling me that NORAD had closed the airspace over Lake Michigan.
That's right out my window! They just opened it again, no explanation
yet, but it seems like a good place to end.
curious what you think, Brian
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