Will Lukashenko and Milosevic have the
same fate?
(The RussianIssues.com)
Lukashenko is running the risk of not only losing
popular trust but also his power
by Yevgeny Yevdokimov, Strana.Ru observer
issued on 18.07.01
issued on 18.07.01
 |
A political scandal in Belarus over abuses of power committed by incumbent President Alexander Lukashenko has been one of the key subjects covered by Russian newspapers in recent weeks. These public expos�s may prove to be really harmful for Lukashenko. He is running the risk of not only losing popular trust, but also his power into the bargain. Presidential elections are slated in Belarus for September. If accusations against the incumbent president keep growing at the same pace as they are now, the entire election campaign may follow the scenario in Yugoslavia, when former President Slobodan Milosevic first lost the election and was then put behind bars.
The Kommersant - Vlast magazine writes that the chief threat comes from the Belorussian elite, which considers Lukashenko's performance as a top leader to be unsatisfactory. The magazine notes that two invisible players could seriously influence the election's outcome: Russia and the United States. US policy towards Belarus in the year of the presidential election has been strange: the United States has noticeably reduced its aid to the Belarus opposition but, on the other hand, has expanded contacts with Lukashenko. True, America has its own logic. It must have considered that bringing a pro-Western politician into power at this point was unrealistic. Therefore, the Americans decided to wait and see until the next elections when the inevitable growth of social tensions and an anti-Russian sentiment will help a pro-Western politician to win.
On the other hand, Moscow can determine a lot in Belarus' elections. Forty-five percent of the Belorussian elite said Moscow's stand will determine their vote. Although formally the Kremlin seems to be marking time, it is unlikely to openly back Lukashenko now despite the fact that he counts on this support. This can be explained by the fact that the Russian military-industrial complex and national gas giant Gazprom are holding serious grudges against Lukashenko. Belarus is extremely important for Russia in military terms. It produces prime movers for Russian Topol nuclear missiles and equipment to track nuclear explosions. A radar station in Baranovichi is the key element of the entire CIS aircraft defense system. The military accuses Lukashenko of trying to use these circumstances to his own advantage either by blackmailing the Russians or taking steps without their prior consent. For example, Lukashenko has sold several S-300 systems to the United States and a Mig-29 helicopter to Peru at lower than market prices.
Gazprom's list is much longer. Belarus has built only one new gas pipeline out of the four promised by Lukashenko. Despite the existing contract, Lukashenko has failed to privatize the Belorussian state gas transportation company.
When asked whom Moscow will support during the upcoming presidential elections in Belarus, an unnamed presidential administration official replied, " Do you think that Russia or Europe will trust Lukashenko to take care of the pipe?!"
In addition, Russian media notes that the Belorussian opposition has been clearly showing its intention to borrow the experience of the Serbian "velvet revolution." Some Belorussian posters replicate the ones that were carried by the Serbs. On the eve of last year's elections, Belgrade had been plastered with one-word posters saying, "Finished!" Similar posters reading, "We are Sick of You," have appeared in Minsk. Moreover, the Kommersant Vlast magazine writes that some of Belarus' opposition leaders have already visited Belgrade to borrow valuable experience. Serbia's democratic coalition had nominated its candidate Vojislav Kostunica at the very last minute. It looks as if the same thing is going to happen in Belarus.
Translation(full): Marina Philippova , Strana.Ru
Published: 18.07.01, 18:10
Published: 18.07.01, 18:10
