USA Today
September 20, 2001
Tragedy can tighten U.S., Russian ties
By Dusko Doder
It is a moment shot through with heart-wrenching ironies. America and
Russia
-- or at least the former Soviet Union -- did not fight in the
traditional way
during the Cold War. But they did engage in a fierce proxy war in
Afghanistan. That war was largely responsible for the communist
superpower's
unraveling.
Could Afghanistan again become a focal point in the two countries'
complex
relationship? One where they finally find common cause? That seems
perfectly
possible -- providing this week's meetings of top government officials
of the
two countries are successful.
Russian President Vladimir Putin already has endorsed America's call for
a
global coalition against terrorism. He has made noises about possibly
joining
an allied military action in Afghanistan, refuge of the main suspect in
the
terrorist attacks, Osama bin Laden.
Words, of course, are not actions. Putin had insisted that a thorough
investigation precede any military action; his defense minister, Sergei
Ivanov, had opposed Western "troop presence" in former Soviet Central
Asia.
Their real calculations will emerge later.
But it seems entirely possible that Russian-American relations now could
shift into a more productive groove -- despite the ironies. The
Russians,
after all, invaded Afghanistan in 1979 to provide "fraternal aid" to a
communist puppet regime against Islamic rebels. The United States took
the
side of the rebels. Guess who was a main rebel leader trained and
supported
by the United States? None other than bin Laden.
The Russian war in Afghanistan devastated Soviet society and its
economy. It
sparked an Islamic revival in Soviet Central Asia. More than any single
event, it led to the unraveling of the Soviet empire, leaving Russia
with
perpetual instability on its southern borders. To Moscow, the Sept. 11
catastrophe may lend credence to Putin's claim that his own war in
Chechnya
is a struggle against Muslim radicals with roots in Afghanistan.
An American-Russian action against bin Laden and his followers in
Afghanistan
could be part of a cooperative effort that might engender the trust that
has
been missing. Russia has extensive intelligence on Afghanistan. Moscow
maintains military bases near Afghan borders in the former Soviet
republics
of Uzbekistan and Tajikistan; it also has a motorized division deployed
on
the Tajik side of the Tajik-Afghan border.
Russia's cooperation, especially providing Western allies access to
these
military facilities, could prove crucial if the United States decides to
take
military action against the Taliban government hosting the Islamic
terrorists.
The other aspect is even more important: the danger of a terrorist group
acquiring nuclear or biological weapons. The Sept. 11 attack makes amply
clear that there are people so blinded by their cause that they would do
anything in its name. Since the collapse of communism, Russia has been
awash
in nuclear materials -- and in scientists with the know-how for making
weapons
of mass destruction.
The American officials now in Moscow need to use their meetings with
Russian
leaders to try to forge a new dialogue. In particular, they need to
soothe
Russian feathers ruffled during recent months as the United States
threatened
to proceed unilaterally with plans to build an anti-missile shield.
And the U.S. delegation should look for ways to proceed jointly in the
new
anti-terrorism war. One of the key ingredients of success in the 1991
Gulf
War was the ability of George Bush, the president's father, to persuade
Kremlin leader Mikhail Gorbachev to join the anti-Iraq coalition.
The struggle against terrorism is, of course, a very different kind of
war,
likely to be more complex and more protracted than the first President
Bush's
conventional war against Iraq. The possibility of nuclear terrorism must
be
considered and appropriate measures taken to protect the United States.
But
we must recognize that no amount of money can prevent future terrorist
attacks if this is not backed up by skillful diplomacy.
Putin, a former secret police agent, has shown himself during the past 2
years to be a pragmatic politician. Russia, in his view, has nothing to
gain
from a confrontation with the United States. He has inherited a country
experiencing a dramatic decline in living standards, its economy in
shambles.
He needs time to reform Russia's financial and tax systems, create an
orderly
society and rebuild the machinery of state power. His country's economic
revival is to a great extent dependent on closer ties with the West.
Putin also believes that Russia is, and must remain, a great power. Its
great-power status is now based solely on its nuclear strike force. He
had
felt threatened by the plans for the missile-defense shield.
But, as Sept. 11's tragedy demonstrated, the international climate can
change
overnight. The war on global terrorism -- a phenomenon that knows no
geographic limits -- will need a new approach, including the skillful
diplomatic forging of a new alliance. One important part of that:
finding a
new common cause for Russia and the United States.
Dusko Doder is the author of several books on Russia, including
Gorbachev:
Heretic in the Kremlin and Shadows and Whispers: Power Politics Inside
the
Kremlin from Brezhnev to Gorbachev.
Serbian News Network - SNN
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