Novaya Gazeta
No. 69
September 24-26, 2001
AMERICA WILL FALL FLAT ON ITS FACE IN AFGHANISTAN
Will China win America's war against terrorism?
Author: Yulia Latynina
[from WPS Monitoring Agency, www.wps.ru/e_index.html]
THE UNITED STATES HAS REACTED TO THE TERROR ATTACKS IN NEW YORK AND
WASHINGTON JUST AS OSAMA BIN LADEN WANTED. NEITHER THE US NOR BIN
LADEN'S SUPPORTERS WILL WIN THE WAR. THE WINNERS ARE LIKELY TO BE
CHINA, INDIA, SOUTH ASIAN AND ARAB COUNTRIES - AND RUSSIA.
The American public, having watched the CNN mini-series on the
destruction of the World Trade Center with rapt horror, is now
demanding a sequel.
Congress has allocated $40 billion to shoot the next episode.
American aircraft carriers, AWACS planes and rapid response forces
have been supplied for the battle scenes.
The only problem is that the Pentagon scriptwriters have a co-
author: Osama bin Laden. And right now everything is going according
to his plans.
For some reason it seems all commentators are sure that it is now
the Americans' turn to lead. Actually, the destruction of the WTC
towers was bait - and the prey - that is, the average American - has
taken the bait, exactly as expected.
Osama bin Laden is not afraid of war. He hopes for it, because
war is a recruiting campaign for bin Laden's forces, paid for by
American taxpayers' money. Every American missile which kills a
hundred people will create a thousand new fighters.
Right now, bin Laden's Al-Qaida network is made up of fringe-
dwellers, who survive by extracting donations from "true believers"
and drug trafficking. But a couple of thousand American tactical
missiles will turn it into a Pan-Islamic government.
Bin Laden did not want to upset the United States. He wanted to
unite the Islamic world in a struggle against the "infidels".
You can bet that the average American doesn't have the slightest
idea of what they are going to be fighting. Americans are used to
this. If a pipe springs a leak, you call a plumber and he will come
and fix everything. If someone blows up the World Trade Center, you
call the government and they will come and fix everything.
The Afghans have no government. They have the tradition of blood-
feud, just like any society where instability and the threat of death
is too high.
Such social phenomena can be eradicated in America by means of
precision strikes. In Afghanistan, however, strikes against them make
them multiply. It is a fundamentally different social structure.
The American scriptwriters are assuming that in Afghanistan they
will fight with high-tech weaponry. But there is a small weakness in
high-tech weaponry: it is only effective against a high-tech
civilization.
Missiles costing $2 million each do a great job of hitting
command points and presidential palaces; but they are an expensive way
to burn the hair off a camel's hide.
The United States claims it is ready for war. This is a bluff,
and we can prove that. According to preliminary figures, 6,000 people
died in the terrorist attacks. Left behind were at least 16,000 close
relatives - wives, brothers, sons, friends.
We all saw dozens of interviews along the lines of "It was so
terrible!" But I personally did not see a single interview which
ended, "And now I am enlisting in the army and I'm going to crush
those vermin who did this."
Americans do not want war. They want a happy ending.
Clearly, neither of the two sides getting involved in this war
will win it. Osama bin Laden will not win it - because terrorists are
like worms in the gut of modern Western civilization. They use its
Stingers, its civilian airliners, and even its financial institutions
to make money for more terror attacks. (By the way, in this sense the
only precision strike that America can actually carry out is a strike
on bin Laden's bank accounts and on the drug trade.)
The Americans will not win the war, because Tomahawks are no help
in getting rid of intestinal parasites.
The war will be won by a third party. Obviously, this is China:
the future super-power of the 21st century. A country developing
dynamically, without fanaticism, in contrast to bin Laden's followers;
and with a 4,000-year history, in contrast to the US. If anybody does
not know what the world's most commonly spoken language will be 50
years from now, here's the answer: Chinese.
Another probable victor is India. And a number of smaller winners
is lining up alongside the big two, principally from South Asia or the
Arab world, right up to Syria or Iran, if they are able to keep on the
sidelines of the fighting which is being planned.
Among these countries - from China to Iran - there are few
similarities, but there is one common factor. They are all importers
of Russian arms and potential strategic allies of Russia.
And now, as America is preparing to fall flat on its face in
Afghanistan, Russia has a unique opportunity: to stand aside from the
brawling, to shape and provide the technological leadership for an
alliance of cultures to which neither of the warring sides is close.
(Translated by Alexander Mazzucchelli)
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Serbian News Network - SNN
[EMAIL PROTECTED]
http://www.antic.org/
