Brzezinski On Moscow's Illusions
Guru Of Sovietology Doubts That Russia Will Get "Free Hands
In Chechnya" And Prevent NATO Extension
('Nezavisimaya Gazeta', October 24, 2001, p.1)
Q: Are you completely sure on Bin Laden's involvement into
terrorist attacks in the US? Please share your assessments with
the Russian audience.
B: I have no reason to doubt the conclusions reached by the U.S.
Government. Please note that in other doubtful cases - such as
the sinking of the Kursk or the recent shooting down of the
Aeroflot plane - U.S. governmental information has been quite
correct.
Q: How long, you assume, the operation in Afghanistan may go
on? Which other countries and regions may be targeted for the
US-led military operation?
B: I would imagine the operation in Afghanistan will last only a
few months.
Obviously, the terrorist network operating in other regions will be
targeted but not necessarily in every case by military means.
Q: Do you agree that negative feelings in the Muslim countries
may lead to unpredictable results, counterproductive for the major
aims of the anti terrorist operation?
B: There is no doubt that there are negative feelings toward the
United States and the West in general in some portions of the
Moslem world. That certainly complicates the anti-terrorist
activities, and the political aspects of these negative feelings
should be at some point taken into account.
Q: Which changes in the world order do you expect in case of
successful completion of the operation?
B: Hopefully, there will be strengthened international cooperation,
both through the United Nations and through different regional
organizations.
Q: Quoting you, "Russia is neither ally, nor enemy, but a
partner." Do you think that Russia's status has changed with the
beginning of this operation?
B: I think Russia is a partner in some aspects of the anti-terrorist
operation, and it would be very desirable if Russia evolved
eventually into a genuine ally.
Q: What Russia's input to the operation do you consider
valuable?
B: So far, mostly in the area of intelligence, but there is still
much more information that Russia could convey.
Q: There are opinions among the Western analysts and
journalists, that the Russian Government expects getting some
benefits from the West in exchange for its assistance in the
operation. Do you believe Russia will reach this aim?
B: There have been comments by Russian government officials
and press to the effect that Russia would like to have a free hand
in Chechnya and perhaps obtain a delay in the expansion of
NATO. However, I doubt that either objective can be fully
attained, because events in Chechnya are more complex than the
issue of terrorism, and the expansion of NATO is part of the
construction of a larger and more stable Europe.
Q: Moscow continually stresses that its actions in Chechnya are
part of international activities against terrorism. Do you agree
with such claim?
B: Some aspects of Russia's actions in Chechnya may be directed
at terrorism but even in such a case Russia should note how
Britain has behaved in Northern Ireland in dealing with terrorism.
Britain did not reduce Belfast to ruins and kill 30,000-40,000
civilians. Moreover, it might be worthwhile to note also that the
French eventually recognized that the Algerians were not
Frenchmen and brought that war to an end through a political
settlement.
Q: Russian officials express criticism on possible Nato
enlargement and US withdrawal from the ABM Treaty. How
could you reply to this criticism?
B: The enlargement of NATO, as I noted earlier, is not directed
against Russia but is part of an effort to build a more stable
Europe. Russians should understand the fears particularly of the
Baltic nations, given what they experienced after 1940.
Moreover, the Baltic nations were not reassured by official
statements by the Russian Foreign Ministry that allegedly in 1940
they joined the Soviet Union "voluntarily" and in keeping with
international law. As to U.S. withdrawal from the ABM Treaty,
my hope is that American-Russian discussions will produce
mutual understanding regarding the need to update some of the
strategic arrangements concluded between the United States and
the Soviet Union back in the 1970s.
Q: Do you completely exclude returning to the 'cold war'-type
confrontation between the US and Russia?
B: I do exclude a return to the Cold War because I do not think
it would be in the interest either of Russia or of the United
States. There are enough people with good common sense in the
leadership of both countries to make such a return impossible.
Serbian News Network - SNN
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