Nezavisimaya Gazeta
September 27, 2001
A ROYAL GIFT
Who in Russia stands to gain from the new war in Afghanistan?
Author: Natalia Melikova
[from WPS Monitoring Agency, www.wps.ru/e_index.html]
PUTIN'S STATEMENT ON RUSSIA'S POTENTIAL INVOLVEMENT IN THE WAR MADE
A SIGNIFICANT ALTERATION TO THE CORRELATION OF FORCES IN DOMESTIC
POLITICS. THE LIST OF THOSE WHO MAY BENEFIT FROM THIS, SOMETIMES IN
UNEXPECTED WAYS, RANGES ALL THE WAY FROM THE COMMUNISTS TO ANATOLY
CHUBAIS.
President Vladimir Putin's sensational address to the nation did
more than outline the Russian government's stance on the war between
America and Afghanistan. Putin's statement on Russia's potential
involvement in the war made a significant alteration to the
correlation of forces in domestic politics. Who in Russia stands to
gain from the new war in Afghanistan?
Paradoxically enough, there could be considerable benefits for
Anatoly Chubais of Russian Joint Energy Systems. Chubais has never
bothered to conceal his pro-Western - actually pro-American - views.
When Russian-US relations were deteriorating, it was Chubais who
became the chief mediator in contacts with Washington. Chubais'
partner in those talks, Dick Cheney, is now defining US tactics and
strategy for the upcoming war in Afghanistan. Cheney is not alone, of
course - Condoleezza Rice, Colin Powell, Donald Rumsfeld, and George
Bush are with him.
Chubais' position was presented to the Duma by Union of Right
Forces leader Boris Nemtsov. Nemtsov used to bombard the government
with plans for negotiations with the separatists in Chechnya. However,
since the terrorist attacks in the United States, the Union of Right
Forces has declared that Russia must join the Western world in its
battle against terrorism. The federal government appears to have
heeded the advice of Nemtsov and Chubais. If Russia's involvement in
the campaign in Central Asia indicates that the authorities are
implementing Chubais' plans, it would mean that Chubais' position in
the political arena has become very strong indeed.
The secret services and security structures are another political
force to have benefited, even despite the statements of some security
ministers (Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov, for one) that Russia should
not get involved. In the first place, secret services working on
Russia's southern borders are being given the perfect chance to do so
without being noticed. Secondly, Russian secret services stand to gain
regardless of the success or failure of their foreign counterparts. If
the Americans are successful, the Russians will get their share of
praise too. If they are not, the Russians will still get some mileage
from this.
Russia's involvement in the events in Afghanistan is a bonus for
the military-industrial lobby. How much revenue can be earned from
supplying arms to Rabbani and the Northern Alliance directly depends
on how long the operation lasts. An economic boost for the military-
industrial establishment will mean its political influence in the
government increases as well.
The Chechen separatist ringleaders are also on the list. The
federal government has deigned to invite them to negotiations. Aware
of its inability to fight a war on two fronts at once, Moscow
presented a proposal to the illegal armed formations to suspend the
hostilities. Guerrillas will be heard out, and their conditions will
probably be accepted. The military needs to finish the war "back
home".
Strangely enough, the left also stands to gain something. No, the
president did not follow their advice; but what the Communists will
gain from Russia's involvement in the counter-terrorism operation is
something bigger and more significant than what they might have gained
had the president heeded their advice. Increased arms spending and the
potential lack of additional budget revenues due to the crash of oil
prices will have an immediate and drastic impact on pensioners and
state sector employees, the Communists' traditional voter support
base. What if Russia gets bogged down in another Afghanistan war? What
if this policy in Central Asia leads to a fiasco? Whenever the
government make a mess of something in Russia, the Communists' ratings
and influence often soar. Actually, if the government's plan for
Afghanistan fails, Putin's opponents will raise their heads. In this
case, the internal and external problems of Afghanistan, one of the
world's poorest countries, will once again affect the fate of the
largest European-Asian nation.
Serbian News Network - SNN
[EMAIL PROTECTED]
http://www.antic.org/
