Macedonia Struggles With
Peace Deal
September 28, 2001
Summary
With Operation Essential Harvest coming to a close, pressure is intensifying for the Macedonian government to grant ethnic Albanians greater constitutional rights. The new global security equation gives Skopje little choice, but the result will be a very fragile peace and a more radical government in 2002.
Analysis
Operation Essential Harvest, NATO's 30-day mission to collect arms from ethnic Albanian militants in Macedonia, concluded Sept. 26 with 3,875 weapons collected, exceeding the goal. But the Sept. 28 deadline for improving ethnic minority rights under the Macedonian constitution passed without the required amendments.
Ethnic Albanians have outmaneuvered the Macedonian government politically since the peace agreement was signed. Although NATO has praised the rebel National Liberation Army (NLA) for its "genuine commitment to disarmament," the alliance has warned Skopje repeatedly against foot-dragging on the constitutional changes and politicization of the peace process. The alliance also has cautioned Skopje against capitalizing on the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks in the United States to wriggle out of its commitments. Skopje has little choice but to approve the amendments, but the move will do little to secure a lasting peace in Macedonia.
Making such changes under European and American duress will stir public discontent and further polarize the Macedonian population, which is about two-thirds Slavic and one-quarter ethnic Albanian. Macedonian Slavs could vent their frustration with both guns and votes. Wayward police and paramilitary groups may seek to exact revenge on ethnic Albanians, potentially driving the NLA to rearm. Also, the general electorate will punish moderate, pro-European leaders by voting for more radical parties in January's national elections.
Related Analysis:
Macedonia Peace
Plan Likely to Fail
NATO's Entry into Macedonia Will Mean Victory for Militants
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