ANALYSIS-Momentum building for sweeping expansion of NATO
By John Chalmers
BRUSSELS, Feb 24 (Reuters) - September 11 and a warmer wind from Moscow
have
made it increasingly likely that up to seven ex-Communist states may
join the
West's NATO defence alliance in a sweeping expansion that few thought
possible a year ago.
Invitations will go out at a summit in Prague in November.
The final choice from a list of nine applicants may not be made by the
19
current NATO members until the last minute, as in 1997 when the alliance
first opened its doors to three former stalwarts of its Cold War
adversary,
the Soviet-run Warsaw Pact.
But, unlike five years ago, there is now no furious debate in the United
States, NATO's dominant force, over the wisdom of extending its security
guarantee eastward to Russia's frontiers. Waging a global "war on
terror"
after September's attacks on the United States has made Washington
keener to
build new alliances.
And with President Vladimir Putin aligning himself more with the West,
there
is less aggressively anti-NATO Russian rhetoric to influence the
enlargement
debate, even though admitting the Baltic states would take the North
Atlantic
Treaty Organisation right onto the soil of the former Soviet Union
itself.
The question of whether to go for enlargement at all, once a privately
preferred option for some west European policymakers eager not to anger
the
Kremlin, is no longer even being asked.
"There is now a very real sense that there is no official limit," one
NATO
diplomat said. "We're saying that, if nine nations prove they're ready,
we'll
take them."
Fresh doubts about NATO's post-Cold War relevance following Washington's
largely go-it-alone war in Afghanistan seem to have fuelled enthusiasm
for
enlargement among other member states.
Secretary General George Robertson, who has tirelessly defended NATO's
worth
against critics for the past five months, sees the Prague summit as a
chance
to adapt the organisation to meet the challenges posed by threats like
those
of the Islamist militants suspected of September's suicide hijack
attacks.
NEW ALLIES
"Prague will consolidate the alliance's position as the primary means
for
developing our armed forces to defeat terrorism and contribute to other
asymmetric challenges," Robertson said in a speech last week.
Philip Gordon of the Brookings Institution believes that September 11
has
made the case for enlargement stronger.
"Enlargement will contribute to the process of integration that has
helped
stabilise Europe over the past 50 years and promote the development of
strong
new allies in the war on terrorism," he wrote in a recent paper.
The nine applicants face differing prospects for Prague.
Diplomats say that Slovenia, which was passed over when Poland, Hungary
and
Czech Republic acceded in 1999, is almost certain to get an invitation
to
join in Prague.
Entry for Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, now liberated from a 50-year
annexation by the Soviet Union, is also virtually assured since Putin
softened his hostility to the idea.
Slovakia could make it five. But if elections due to take place just
before
Prague return a nationalistic government under former premier Vladimir
Meciar, its hopes could be dashed.
A Western diplomat said Macedonia and Albania had accepted -- though not
yet
publicly -- that they will not make the grade.
But membership for Romania and Bulgaria, once a distant prospect, looks
increasingly likely to take the tally to seven.
One ambassador at NATO's Brussels headquarters said that at a recent
brainstorming session on enlargement representatives from several
countries
spoke out strongly in favour of taking seven new members. And no one
spoke
explicitly against it.
There is supposed to be an official silence on membership prospects
ahead of
the Prague summit to avoid diminishing the incentives for candidates to
make
reforms required for entry.
That membership checklist includes demonstrating a commitment to the
rule of
law and human rights, establishing democratic control of the armed
forces and
promoting stability and well-being through economic freedoms.
SILENCE NOT HOLDING
But horse-trading has begun and the silence is not holding.
German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder has said he expects Slovakia to be
in the
next wave of new European Union and NATO states and his foreign
minister,
Joschka Fischer, has thrown Berlin's weight behind the Baltic states'
bid for
membership.
EU Enlargement Commissioner Guenter Verheugen said last week that NATO
should
take in Bulgaria and Romania, Balkan laggards which are not expected to
qualify for EU membership for several more years, to avoid the "danger
of
double rejection."
France, Italy, Greece and Turkey are also likely to push hard for
Bulgaria
and Romania, arguing that NATO needs a strong southern European
dimension and
a foothold in the Balkans, where the threat to security is far greater
than
in the east.
Diplomats say that enlargement would support a U.S.-inspired agenda to
develop NATO into a more global organisation which can deal with new
threats,
including terrorism and weapons of mass destruction, and also act as a
bridge
to Russia.
But many believe the entry of countries which can add little to the
alliance's military strength will turn NATO into more of a political
organisation and less of an armed force.
"The 2002 enlargement of NATO might symbolise the end of NATO as a
meaningful
military institution," analyst Sean Kay wrote in a paper for the
independent,
Washington-based Center for Defense Information.
"Eventually, NATO will become the central security organisation for all
of
Europe, most likely replacing many of the activities that are currently
undertaken by the 50-plus member Organisation for Security and
Cooperation in
Europe."
Serbian News Network - SNN
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