By Atul Aneja
Oil supplies from Iraq are expected to be affected in case of a U.S. military action. That, however, does not upset Washington's energy calculations. Despite the presence of nearly 100 billion barrels of reserves that is likely to last it for another 100 years, Iraq's contribution to the international oil pool is at present tiny. Ravaged by economic sanctions, Iraq presently exports only one million barrels per day. Instead of Iraq, U.S. apprehensions are centred on Saudi Arabia. U.S. planners, according to diplomatic sources are not ruling out disruption of oil supplies from Riyadh in case of a war with Iraq.
Saudi Arabia has already declared that it will not allow the U.S. to use its bases for military strike on Iraq. Deterioration of political relations between Washington and Riyadh in the future can translate into Saudi Arabia's reluctance to part with its oil.
A recent report by the RAND Corporation submitted to a Pentagon advisory panel that advocated a U.S. takeover of the Saudi oil fields has become an additional irritant in the relationship between the two countries. Besides, the U.S. has not been particularly pleased with the Saudi role within the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to keep up oil prices at around 25 dollars a barrel, especially at a time when its economy is experiencing a downslide.
Analysts, however, point out that while it is logical that Washington will make its contingency plans by finding alternative suppliers prior to a possible war, the Saudis can, at most, restrict oil flows to the U.S. as a purely short term measure. In case international oil supplies from the Persian Gulf are reduced, the U.S. is looking mainly at the non-OPEC member Russia to fill in the gap. Russia, which is currently depending increasingly on exports of oil, weapons and diamonds to sustain itself may not hesitate to make up for the international energy deficit.
