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http://www.economist.com/world/europe/PrinterFriendly.cfm?Story_ID=13374 43 The Economist, World/Europe Russia's foreign policy Vladimir Putin, friend or foe of the West? Sep 19th 2002 | MINSK AND MOSCOW Russia's recent behaviour has made some worry that it is thinking twice about its rapprochement with the West. Probably not so TO A casual observer a year ago, it looked as if the September 11th attacks had made President Vladimir Putin decide to join the West. To a casual observer now, it might look as if he has changed his mind. Having at first stoutly backed America's war on terror, Russia seems to have shifted recently: it has been cool about an invasion of Iraq, uncomfortably warm towards America's "axis-of-evil" countries, and ever more aggressive towards Georgia, where some Chechen rebels seek refuge. Last week Mr Putin even threatened to bomb Georgia's Pankisi Gorge-something the Georgians have accused the Russians of doing covertly in the past-because that is where Chechens can hide out. Some Kremlin-watchers believe that, under pressure from Moscow conservatives to stand up for Russia's interests, Mr Putin is demanding a quid pro quo from the gunslinging George Bush: we'll let you bomb your enemy, if you let us bomb ours. In reality, though, Mr Putin's critics both at home and abroad are oversimplifying. Neither his original position nor his current one are the knee-jerk reactions they seem. A pragmatist in foreign policy as in everything else, he had started looking for closer ties with America and Europe, and a bigger role for Russia in international bodies, well before September 11th last year. And his support after the attacks did reap rewards. Both the United States and the European Union awarded Russia "market-economy" status, and the creation of a Russia-NATO council in May marked an about-turn from Russia's previous hostility to the western alliance. Hardline Russians still complain that Mr Putin has let their country's world position slip-for instance, by allowing American troops into former Soviet Central Asia and by raising too few objections to NATO membership for the three Baltic republics. And in recent weeks Mr Putin did indeed appear to thumb his nose at the Americans. He met the Korean dictator, Kim Jong Il, and there was talk of a $40-billion trade deal with Iraq and of building five more nuclear reactors in Iran. But the Russian president and Mr Kim had met before (anyway, Mr Kim meets a lot more people than he used to). And it was the Iraqis that brought up the subject of the deal-and probably exaggerated its size. In any event, staying friendly with such traditional allies is pragmatic and sensible, not just for investment, which will be small, but because Russia could be a mediator that one day helps even such renegades as North Korea to open up. Meanwhile, Russia's insistence on a UN solution to the Iraq conflict, rather than an American-led invasion, has pragmatic roots too. Permanent membership of the UN Security Council offers one of the few levers of world power that an impoverished Russia still has; it would not like to see the Council ignored. When necessary, the pragmatism also works the other way. For years Belarus's president, Alexander Lukashenka, has wheedled aid and concessions out of Russia while demanding a union of the two countries as a thinly-disguised way for him to become president of all the Russias. But the increasingly dictatorial Mr Lukashenka has no friends in the West. Even his own officials detest him, say foreign diplomats in Minsk. And recently Mr Putin has grown visibly tired of him too. Last month he responded to Mr Lukashenka's integration proposals by making one of his own: in essence, let the Russian Federation absorb Belarus's seven regions, making the Belarussian president redundant. Earlier this month the Russian and Belarussian press published a transcript of a tapped phone conversation, in which a Russian MP, Boris Nemtsov, told a Belarussian opposition leader, Anatol Lyabedzka, that the Kremlin was sympathetic to moves to undermine Mr Lukashenka. Evidently, Mr Putin does not hold on to traditional allies just for the sake of it. The situation in Georgia is more worrying. Mr Putin timed his bombing threat to coincide both with the anniversary of the terror attacks in America and with President Bush's robust speech to the UN. Russia had often raised the topic of its campaign against Chechen rebels during UN discussions on Iraq. It certainly wanted the world to see the parallel. And American officials concede that their own country's experience of terror has certainly made them more sympathetic to Russia's. http://www.economist.com/images/20020921/CEU907.gif But that does not necessarily mean Russia wanted a deal: a free hand in Georgia in return for giving America a free hand over Iraq. While Mr Bush would probably like to attack Iraq, it is not clear that Mr Putin really wants a full-scale assault on northern Georgia. For one thing, it would be messy. "I don't think the Russian military is capable of clean surgical operations in Pankisi," says Dmitri Trenin, a defence expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Moscow. The posturing may just be Mr Putin's concession to the hawks who think he should be tougher both on Georgia-whose president, Edward Shevardnadze, has enemies in Moscow-and on America. It may also reflect Mr Putin's own desperation. His harshness against the Chechens first made him popular with voters. But his failure to end the conflict could be a big weakness in the next presidential election, in 2004. He may not, in the end, be pushed to extreme measures, though his latest tactics look thuggish. But rather than simply condemning them, the Americans might be able to help both Russia and Georgia co-operate to find a solution. --------------------------- ANTI-NATO INFORMATION LIST ==^================================================================ This email was sent to: [email protected] EASY UNSUBSCRIBE click here: http://topica.com/u/?a84x2u.bacIlu Or send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] T O P I C A -- Register now to manage your mail! http://www.topica.com/partner/tag02/register ==^================================================================
