Title: Message
NATO clouds hang heavy
By Sergei Blagov
MOSCOW - In the wake of the September 11, 2001 attacks, the reinvented
partnership between the United States and Russia has been heralded as an end to
the Cold War era. However, Moscow's continued objections against the expansion
of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) could serve as an indication
that Russia still faces immense challenges on the path toward integration with
the West.
NATO has tried to reassure Moscow that the expansion is not
directed against Russia. Nonetheless, Russia seems to feel isolated and
threatened as up to two thirds of Russians view NATO as an "aggressive" bloc,
according to recent opinion polls.
Russia fears that NATO will go on
expanding and the next round of expansion could involve Ukraine, Moldova,
Georgia, Uzbekistan and other Central Asian countries, completing what is seen
in Moscow as the geopolitical encirclement of Russia. Some Russian commentators
say that the eastward expansion of NATO constitutes the biggest threat to their
country since World War II.
Russia's fears of encirclement were
heightened by speculation that other former Soviet states could eventually join
NATO. Rumors swirled in Moscow that the Central Asian state of Kazakhstan could
join NATO as well. In April, the Kazakh Foreign Ministry had to issue a
statement, indicating that Kazakhstan had no plans to join the bloc.
Nonetheless, the State Duma, which is the lower house of the Russian
parliament, lashed out at NATO's expansion to Russia's frontiers and urged the
Russian government to re-think its defense strategies and deployment of its
forces. The Duma's pro-Kremlin majority overwhelmingly approved a resolution
that strongly urged NATO members to ratify an amended version of the
Conventional Forces in Europe (CFE) treaty that would include restrictions on
the deployment of weapons near Russia's borders.
In May 2002, Russia
joined the NATO-Russian Council, which gave Moscow a role in drafting and
implementing several common policies on peacekeeping, counter-terrorism, weapons
proliferation, humanitarian intervention and regional crises. The creation of
the council indicated a transformation of NATO, which was established in 1949 to
defend the West against the Soviet threat.
On March 29, NATO expanded to
26 states, incorporating seven new members. Now Moscow argues that NATO's move
eastward contradicted its pledge to enhance cooperation with Russia in
counter-terrorism, nonproliferation, peacekeeping and other areas, contained in
the 2002 agreement. NATO, in turn, has blamed Russia for failing to fulfill its
pledge to withdraw its troops from the former Soviet states of Georgia and
Moldova. Moscow argues that Georgia and Moldova are unrelated to the CFE.
Despite heated objections, the Kremlin has said that Russia would
continue to cooperate with NATO However, Moscow indicated it could reassess its
military planning in view of what it called NATO's aggressive strategy. Moscow
was particularly unhappy with NATO's decision to deploy aircraft to defend the
airspace of the three ex-Soviet Baltic republics of Estonia, Latvia and
Lithuania as soon as they join the bloc.
Although no other countries
were likely to be invited to join NATO soon, Moscow has sounded increasingly
nervous about NATO's eastward expansion. Many Russian media outlets commented
that NATO aircraft would be deployed "in five-minute flight time" from the
country's second largest city, St Petersburg.
Of course, four old
Belgian jets patrolling Baltic airspace hardly present any threat to Russia.
Nevertheless, Russia's time-honored fears of encirclement resurfaced in the
1990s, when Russian power and influence hit near all-time lows. Furthermore,
Moscow probably feels that its recent friendly moves towards the West did not
really pay off.
In the wake of September 11, Russia has undertaken a
series of gestures towards the US. In October 2002, the Kremlin announced a shut
down of its Cold War Era military facilities: a spy radar station in Lourdes,
Cuba and a naval base in Cam Ranh Bay, Vietnam to spare more money for the
Russian armed forces. Russia also dropped its initial opposition to the
stationing of American military forces close to its borders in Central Asia.
Moscow's pro-Western course after September 11 reaped benefits for
Russia. Notably, in May 2002 Russia and the US signed a legally binding treaty
to reduce the two countries' long-range nuclear weapons by two-thirds and
liquidate the legacy of the Cold War. Russia's new cooperative face secured US
backing for Moscow's efforts to join the World Trade Organization (WTO). Russia
also received membership in the G-8 group of the most industrialized countries.
Russia was recognized as a market economy by the US and the European Union in
2002.
The invitation to Russia in 2002 for full participation in
political and economic discussions, as well as to host the 2006 meeting of the
G-8, acknowledged Russian support in Afghanistan following the September 11
attacks, and President Vladimir Putin's decision to accept the next round of
NATO expansion quietly.
As both NATO and the EU creep closer to Russian
frontiers, Moscow seems to opt a path of compromise. Russia and the EU, which on
May 1 expanded deep into Eastern Europe, had agreed in principle on all
outstanding problems Moscow had with EU expansion, apart from the rights of
Russian speakers in the Baltic States.
Russia and the EU forged a last
minute agreement on April 27. The extension to the Partnership and Cooperation
Agreement (PCA) means that the 10 new members joining the EU will trade with
Russia under the same rules as the EU's 15 existing members. The agreement comes
after months of Russian refusal to sign the extension to the PCA. unless certain
concerns were dealt with. The deal covers trade and all political, economic and
cultural links between Moscow and the EU.
The EU had insisted that the
PCA be extended automatically, causing a stalemate that lasted for months.
Russia fears losing the trade benefits it enjoys with many of the new members,
eight of which are former communist countries with which Moscow has close ties.
Russia has been seeking compensation for the expansion. Moscow forwarded a list
of 14 demands, including one to raise quotas on Russian steel imports.
The EU demanded that foreign and independent firms be allowed access to
Russia's gas pipelines and to raise domestic gas prices to international levels.
Russia's state-controlled monopoly Gazprom, the world's biggest gas company,
opposes any liberalization of the system. But Moscow would not be prepared to
hike domestic gas prices and remove another major EU objection to its WTO
accession.
Russia and the EU also struck a deal on cargo shipments to
and from Russia's Kaliningrad enclave, which is wedged between incoming EU
members Poland and Lithuania.
Yet progress on negotiations on Russia's
entry into the WTO remained slow. The EU reportedly offered Moscow smoother
accession in exchange for ratification of the Kyoto Protocol, a global
environmental pact that the EU has pressured Moscow to ratify.
The EU
and Moscow have yet to solve a dispute over treatment of the Russian minorities
in the Baltics, particularly in Latvia and Estonia. Russia has long complained
about what it calls discrimination against Russian-speakers in Estonia and
Latvia. In the end, the joint declaration did not specifically refer to Russian
minorities but to minorities in general.
Russian objections against
NATO's eastward expansion, combined with long-standing Russian fears and
suspicions over Western intentions, demonstrate that Moscow still faces a long
path towards full-scale partnership with its Cold War Era foes.
Published with permission of the Power and Interest News
Report, an analysis-based publication that seeks to provide
insight into various conflicts, regions and points of interest around the globe.
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