National Post (Canada) March 10, 2005 Thursday National Edition
ISSUES & IDEAS
The forgotten tinderbox
BY: Scott Taylor, National Post
On Tuesday, Ramush Haradinaj resigned as Kosovo's prime minister. The next
day, he surrendered to the UN war crimes tribunal for the former Yugoslavia,
charged for his alleged role in atrocities in the late 1990s. Mr.
Haradinaj's prosecution is being hailed as a triumph of international law.
In reality, symbolic victories such as this will matter little. Since the
Kosovo conflict of 1999, the deployment of tens of thousands of NATO
peacekeepers has failed to really stabilize the region. Indeed, it seems
only a matter of time before the Balkans flare up again in a spasm of deadly
violence.
The basic problem is that Serbia and Montenegro (the remainder of the former
Yugoslavia) will never agree to grant the province of Kosovo formal
independence. Yet the majority Albanian population will accept nothing less.
And so whatever solution is imposed by the international community, one side
or another will likely be angry enough to take up arms. The resulting
conflict could easily spread to nearby countries, several of which are
already dangerously unstable.
Any move toward a brokered secession of Kosovo could spark renewed attempts
by Bosnian Croats and Serbs to realign themselves with Croatia and Serbia
respectively. A partition of Kosovo into separate Serbian and Albanian
enclaves, on the other hand, might encourage Albanian minority separatists
in south Serbia and northern Macedonia. In the end, the regional map might
be redrawn so as to create a greater Albanian Kosovo, an enlarged Croatia
and an enlarged Serbia, but the resulting rump republics of Bosnia and
Macedonia would be left too small to function.
Things are equally uncertain inside Kosovo itself. Under the terms of UN
Resolution 1244, passed in the summer of 1999, Kosovo remains part of the
sovereign territory of the state union of Serbia and Montenegro. But in
reality, the Serbs are incapable of administering the province.
For instance, Resolution 1244 also called for the creation of a
multicultural society, tolerant of Serbs and Albanians alike. This has not
materialized, and the international community appears none the wiser. In
fact, Kosovo was struck by a three-day pogrom in early 2004 when Albanian
Kosovars, enraged by the slow progress toward independence, targeted the
territory's remaining Serbian enclaves. When the dust settled 28 civilians
were dead, over 1000 were injured and 800 houses were burnt to the ground.
It's no wonder that Serbian efforts to repatriate some of the 200,000
Serbians who fled Kosovo in 1999 has been so unsuccessful. But outside the
region, the violence received little attention.
The appointment of Mr. Haradinaj as prime minister was a further bad sign. A
former hard-line Albanian nationalist and a notorious commander in the
Kosovo Liberation Army, Mr. Haradinaj has been accused of war crimes against
both Serbs and suspected Albanian sympathizers. That his appointment as
prime minister was greeted without much fuss by civil authorities in Kosovo
and the European Union shows how little attention the world is paying to the
region.
Indeed, when George Robertson finished his term as secretary general of NATO
in 2003 he even boasted that the military alliance has proven its continued
worth and relevance through its work in the Balkans. According to Lord
Robertson, NATO had "ended a war in Bosnia, won a war in Kosovo and
prevented a war in Macedonia." Unfortunately, events may soon put the lie to
this sunny assessment.
According to some reports, Albanian militants are preparing for military
action throughout the region. If so, NATO peacekeepers will be called on to
intervene in order to protect the political status quo. If they start taking
casualties in significant numbers, Western nations will have to decide
whether to increase their troop presence, or pull out entirely.
If war does break out in the Balkans, it will show that the West's good
intentions and peacemaking efforts mean little if they are not sustained
vigilantly over the long run. It is a lesson we may want to keep in mind in
Iraq, Afghanistan and everywhere else Western troops are keeping the peace.
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