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Kosovo moves toward a messy
independence |
International Herald Tribune
FRIDAY, OCTOBER 28, 2005
| Six
years and four months after it made Kosovo a ward, the United
Nations Security Council has ordered that talks begin on the future
status of that blood-soaked Balkan province. This is to give the
impression that the outcome is not decided. It is, and it's
independence. The six nations that oversee Kosovo - the United
States, Britain, France, Germany, Italy and Russia - have ruled out
returning it to Serbia, linking it to Albania, or partitioning it.
So the task of Martti Ahtisaari, the former Finnish president who
will lead the talks, is to carve yet another independent state out
of the former Yugoslavia.
We have argued that
Kosovo is neither prepared for nor deserving of independence. Its
Albanian majority has shown no tolerance toward the Serbian minority
and little capacity for self-government. Kosovo has no army, only a
fledgling police force and powerful mafias. The only Albanian leader
with any semblance of authority, Ibrahim Rugova, has lung cancer.
His most likely successor, Ramush Haradinaj, was indicted by the
international tribunal in The Hague and surrendered.
The Serbs will not
voluntarily cede this territory, and Albanian rioting in March 2004,
which destroyed 30 of the many ancient Serb churches in Kosovo, does
not give the Serbs great confidence in an independent Kosovo. The
Albanians have no faith that the Serbs would not revert to ethnic
cleansing if they had the chance. These two groups are never going
to agree.
So why is the United
Nations moving ahead? The current arrangement requires Kosovo to
demonstrate responsible self-rule before talks even begin on its
ultimate status. That has proved an artificial and unworkable goal.
The UN viceroy in Kosovo, Soren Jessen-Petersen, says it has created
uncertainty on all sides and kept foreign investors out.
So the time has come to
recognize the inevitable outcome, independence for Kosovo. But the
Security Council can still insist on the attainment of democratic
standards before granting it. That could force the Serbs to come to
grips with having lost Kosovo in 1999. The Albanian Kosovars are
more likely to demonstrate leadership if they are told that they are
working toward independence, not merely toward talking about working
toward independence.
The Security Council
would be foolish to use the Ahtisaari mission to extract itself from
a bad situation as soon as possible. Even with the best of
intentions, an independent Kosovo will require international forces
and strong oversight for a long time. In the Balkans, the default
mode is violence.
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