http://www.balkanpeace.org/hed/archive/nov05/hed7241.shtml
VOA, November 17, 2005
Secessionist Kosovo, Montenegro Test Serbia's Politics
With the status of Serbia's relationship with Kosovo and Montenegro
soon to come under discussion, Serbian politics may be entering a new
and unpredictable phase.
In Serbia, the reformist coalition of Prime Minister Vojislav
Kostunica clings to power because it has the informal support of the
Socialist Party of indicted war criminal Slobodan Milosevic. But the
government will soon face critical tests as it grapples with Serbia's
evolving relationship with Kosovo and Montenegro.
With United Nations sponsored negotiations on Kosovo's future status
about to begin, Prime Minister Kostunica is in the process of
formulating his government's position. Parliament is gearing up to
debate the Kosovo question as well.
Still nominally part of Serbia, Kosovo has for six years been
administered by the United Nations, ever since NATO forces drove
Serbian troops out of the province. Kosovo's 95 percent ethnic
Albanian majority demands independence and the major powers have moved
closer to accepting that possibility.
But, in Serbia, Kosovo it is an explosive political issue. None of
Serbia's many political parties is willing to even discuss the
possible loss of the province that is the cradle of Serbia's orthodox
Christianity. Privately, however, some Serbian politicians accept that
Kosovo will likely split from Serbia. The western powers most involved
in the upcoming negotiations insist that the Kosovar Albanians
guarantee minority rights and provide access to Serbian religious
shrines.
Montenegro is also a problem for Mr. Kostunica. This small and
sparsely populated territory is currently loosely linked to Serbia,
but it prints its own money and enjoys widespread autonomy. The
government wants full independence for the mountainous coastal
republic and Montenegro is expected to hold a referendum on
independence early next year.
Political analyst James Lyon, the Belgrade representative of the
International Crisis Group, says Montenegro will likely separate from
Serbia. He agrees with most analysts who predict that Kosovo will also
achieve some kind of independence.
Political and economic analyst Miroslav Prokopijevic predicts the loss
of both territories may well strengthen the nationalist element in
Serbia's politics. He says when elections are held in Serbia, probably
sometime in 2006, the extreme nationalist Radical Party will come to
power.
"That's for sure. Because according to all polls they enjoy now 35
percent popularity," he said. "And since with our system of
proportional representation, with a turnout of 45 percent or lower [in
the election], they [the Radicals] will be able to form a government
alone. This means they would have at least 126 seats out of 250."
The Radicals, whose leader Vojislav Sesej is awaiting trial for war
crimes in The Hague, has long been an ally of discredited former
President Milosevic.
Mr. Kostunica, a constitutional lawyer, has presided over a fractious
multi-party coalition. Like most reformist politicians, he wants
Serbia to be part of the European Union some day.
Preliminary negotiations have begun but Europe and the United States
have conditioned further progress on integration into western
institutions on the extradition by the end of this year of Ratko
Mladic, the former Bosnian Serb military commander who has been
indicted for war crimes. Mr. Mladic is believed to be hiding in
Serbia.
Serbian News Network - SNN
[email protected]
http://www.antic.org/
