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Kosovo
issue inflaming separatism in EU neighbours
24.02.2006 -
09:55 CET | By Andrew
Rettman
EUOBSERVER / BRUSSELS - The idea of Kosovar independence as a precedent
for other separatist states is catching on in South
Caucasus, with damaging implications for EU energy interests.
The breakaway Georgian regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia and the
Armenian-occupied Azerbaijan region, Nagorno-Karabakh,
are using the Kosovar model to legitimise their own "de facto states", UK-based
analyst Oksana Antonenko said.
"The EU must develop a position on this. To
say we don't recognise a linkage is not good enough," the International
Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) expert added.
"The politicians and the
elite continue to make a case to their people. The issue of Kosovo's status is
changing their expectations, making them less willing to engage in the peace
process."
Separatists will "scream about double standards" if the EU
endorses independence in Kosovo but pushes reunification in South Caucasus, Brussels-based CEPS analyst Michael
Emerson indicated.
Pristina and Belgrade are
currently in talks to decide the status of Kosovo, a UN-administered province in
Serbia since ethnic clashes subsided
in 1999.
But senior UK
diplomat John Sawers told Belgrade two weeks ago that the west has
"decided" Kosovo should be independent.
Russian gambit
Russian president Vladimir Putin gave weight to the Kosovo
precedent idea on Russian TV on 30 January, with Moscow diplomats discussing the notion at UN
level since.
"We need universal principles to find a fair solution to these
problems," Mr Putin said.
"If people believe that Kosovo can be granted full
independence, why then should we deny it to Abkhazia and South Ossetia?" he asked. "We know that
Turkey, for instance, has
recognised the republic of Northern
Cyprus."
Russian troops in Georgia and Armenia give Moscow leverage against the pro-EU drift of South Caucasus. But Mr Putin's words confused some
experts, with Russia
historically opposed to Kosovan independence and facing a legacy of separatism
at home in Chechnya,
Ingushetia and Dagestan. "It's hard to know if
they are serious or just trying to create pressure against Kosovan
independence," former Estonian foreign minister and socialist MEP Toomas Ilves
indicated.
"If Kosovo becomes a precedent and Transniestria recognises
Abkhazia, Northern Cyprus recognizes
Nagorno-Karabakh, we could have a real mess on our hands." Bosnian region
Republika Srpska "will" also call for independence if Kosovo has its way,
Serbian contacts told British conservative MEP Charles Tannock on a recent trip
to Belgrade.
EU peace
efforts Brussels does not
recognize Abkhazia, South Ossetia, or Nagorno-Karabakh, but the EU is stepping
up conflict resolution and EU integration efforts in South
Caucasus under its neighborhood policy. The EU buys oil from Azerbaijan through the so-called BCT pipeline,
with plans afoot to build a new Caspian Sea gas link via Azerbaijan and Georgia under the Nabucco project, reducing
energy dependency on Russia. "If there was a new conflict [in
Nagorno-Karabakh], the first target would be the pipeline and the oil
terminals," senior OSCE diplomat Bernard Fassier indicated. "It's essential the EU uses all the
tools at its disposal...to get the message across that you have to respect
compromise," he added. EU special
envoy to the region, Heikki Talvitie, said Europe has promised peacekeepers and
a "blessing ceremony" for Nagorno-Karabakh if Armenia and Azerbaijan can clinch a deal. He recently went to Moscow to endorse a Georgian-Russian plan for
demilitarising South Ossetia.
EU
neighbours on dangerous path
International diplomacy's new interest in South Caucasus comes at a time when popular hardliners are
gaining support for military solutions to the conflicts.
The region is
arming for battle with Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan all doubling their
military spending in the past two years. "There is a radicalisation of public
opinion and a push for more hardline solutions in the future," the IISS'
Antonenko said. "What we have seen in the past few years is a serious arms race
in South Caucasus." The OSCE's Bernard Fassier
recalled that young soldiers die "on a monthly basis" in border skirmishes in
Abkhazia and South Ossetia, while the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict claimed 10,000 lives in 1994. "Time is not on our side," he stated.
"Chekhov has taught us, if you have a pistol on the table in the first act, it
will be fired by someone before the curtain drops.
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