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WHY BELGRADE WANTS TO CHANGE LOGIC OF AHTISAARIS PROCESS?
What are the goals of Serbian PM Vojislav Kostunica when he comes up with proposals on direct meetings and talks between high representatives in Kosovo and Serbia? Despite the deficiencies, the Serbian PM is not a politician who does not know what he does about issues of the strategic nature, such as the idea about direct dialogue with Kosovos high authorities. Kostunica could understand through Slobodan Samardjic, the main advisor to Kostunica and the head of the Serbian delegation in the Vienna talks about decentralization in Kosovo, that the development of the negotiations on Kosovos status so far has not been favourable for him and Serbia. There are at least two reasons for such a conclusion. First of all, Kostunica, Serbian President Boris Tadic, and other Serbian leaders could have understood as of January 31 and on what is the position of the chief-negotiator Maarti Ahtisaari and the Contact Group about the conclusion of Ahtisaaris mission. Few days later, Great Britain PM Tony Blair repeated the position in favour of Kosovos independence as the most possible and probably the only option of Ahtisaaris undertaking. Kostunica and Tadic have also received private messages from western diplomats and politicians, including Frank Wisner, the US special envoy to Kosovos status, that independence is the most realistic option. Secondly, the two meetings in Vienna on decentralization showed that Serbian negotiators will face with difficulties to convince the international mediators for their position, since it is in contradiction with the Guiding Principles of the Contact Group and the position of Ahtisaari and his team. The creation of a special entity for Kosovo Serbs and its direct connection with Serbia is an unacceptable problem, not only for Prishtina, but also for the EU and US. Then, if the epilogues of the status is already known, the down-up approach is very disputable for Kostunica and Belgrade. This approach means that at the beginning of the negotiations, the mediators will deal with non-statutory issues decentralization, cultural heritage, economic-financial issue, international presence in Kosovo etc - to move on towards the final phase of the political talks. When all elements are put in one place, it is not surprising why Serbian PM Kostunica wants to change the logic of Ahtisaaris logic, because it is not favourable for him and Serbia. Then, he wants to impose the format of direct meetings, because he is strongly supported by Russia and China. Of course, sooner or later, meetings of higher levels will be held between the two delegations, but they should take place within Ahtisaaris mission in Vienna. POLITICAL VALUE AND STATUS Each time it is understood more and more what should Kosovar side do during the next weeks and months in order to create a favourable position when Ahtisaari prepares his proposal for the conclusion of Kosovo issue. From now on everything will be measured with the goldsmiths balance: the spoiling of order, the explosions in Prishtina lately, the possible serious incidents that might have serious consequences for the process of status definition. Much more should be done in fighting crime and corruption, it should be proved that Kosovo has an economic prospective as independent state and finally that the state of Kosovo will contribute to the security and stability of the region, which is very much important for the West. But, this should be openly said, since this is the predominating logic of this process that the key issue in the future short-term period coincides with visible and measurable progress in some critical points of the plan on prior standards. There are no doubts that in this aspect the latest actions of President Sejdiu and PM Ceku are to be welcomed, when they said that Kosovo should be a country of all its citizens, despite of their ethnic and religious background. But, in this segment, more should be done in order to create new facts, which will be political value for Kosovo when it will be decided about the status issue. |
