http://www.stratfor.com/products/premium/read_article.php?id=276698
Strategic Forecasting
September 29, 2006 21 27 GMT
Bosnia-Herzegovina: Elections on the Horizon but No Stability in Sight
Summary
Bosnia-Herzegovina will hold elections Oct. 1 for almost all of its
central government and segregated regions. The elections come amid
internal fractures within Bosniak and Croat groups, calls from Serbs
for an independence referendum and a deadline for the international
community to hand over supervision of this fragile country completely
to its new government. The election will be the test to see whether
the domestic parties can hold the country together enough to take
control, or whether more international caretaking is needed. As the
different factions within Bosnia continue to splinter, it seems the
international community will not be able to wash its hands of the
country any time soon.
Analysis
On Oct. 1, Bosnia-Herzegovina will elect nearly its entire government
-- the tri-president, parliament, the Federation of Bosnia and
Herzegovina's parliament and the Serb Republic's president and
parliament. Leading up to the elections, the country's Bosniak and
Croat groups have fractured internally, the Serbs have called for a
referendum for independence, and the international community is
scheduled to hand over supervision of the fragile country entirely to
the new government in June 2007. This election will show whether or
not the three domestic factions can hold Bosnia-Herzegovina together
enough to take over for the United Nations' supervisors.
Bosnia-Herzegovina is a delicate country made up of three groups:
Bosniaks (Bosnian Muslims), Catholic Croats and Orthodox Serbs --
ingredients that religiously, ethnically and historically do not mix
well. The country was one of the six federal units of the Socialist
Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (SFRY). When Bosnia-Herzegovina gained
its independence in 1992, armed conflict -- and then a genocidal war
that involved the whole former SFRY region -- erupted among all the
groups. At the time, Bosnia-Herzegovina was largely controlled by the
Serbian majority, which is now concentrated in the current Serb
Republic. Eventually, the Bosniaks and Croats teamed up to create the
Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina to counter The Serb Republic.
The Serbian war ended and the current states formed when the
international community, outraged by the genocidal war, called on the
region's leaders to agree to the Dayton Accords. Under the Dayton
Accords, the United Nations appointed an international administrator
-- called the high representative -- to supervise Bosnia-Herzegovina.
The country remains split between the Federation of Bosnia and
Herzegovina and The Serb Republic. Each entity has its own president,
parliament and constitution, though there is also a central government
-- comprising a president and parliament -- for the country as a
whole. As if this were not confusing enough, the central government's
presidency has an eight-month rotation among the Bosniaks, Croats and
Serbs, guaranteeing a sharing of power. The high representative
ultimately has the final say in each government's decisions;
essentially, if not for the high representative, there would be no
unified Bosnia-Herzegovina.
This is where the upcoming elections come in.
The rise in tensions is over Bosnia-Herzegovina's further unification.
The majority of the Bosniak parties have called for the dissolution of
The Serb Republic and a full unification of the state. A large
minority among the Bosniaks does not stand behind the unification
movement, however, and this split has led to uncertainty among the
Bosniaks leading up to the elections.
Another split has occurred among the Croats, leading to two distinct
parties: the moderate Croat Democratic Union 1990 (HDZ 1990) and
ultra-nationalist Croat Democratic Union (HDZ). The split weakens the
Croats' usual firm support for the Bosniaks and leads to the second
uncertainty leading into the elections. The new HDZ 1990 party has
said that the country simply cannot continue with its current set-up
and also flatly rejects unification. The HDZ, on the other hand, still
stands behind the Bosniaks and their call for dissolution of The Serb
Republic. This split will definitely be felt in the Oct. 1 elections.
The Bosnian Serbs have responded to the calls for the dissolution of
The Serb Republic by demanding a referendum within The Serb Republic
for independence from the rest of the country. The Serb Republic's
prime minister, Milorad Dodik, has been campaigning on the platform of
independence. U.N. High Representative Christian Schwarz-Schilling has
said that Dodik will be dismissed if he continues with this platform.
However, Schwarz-Schilling has not dismissed Dodik because Dodik could
well be re-elected Oct. 1. Dodik has the support of the majority in
The Serb Republic, and Schwarz-Schilling runs the risk of setting off
that majority if he decides to dismiss Dodik after his re-election.
Another problem with the referendum is that the constitutions of the
central government and the republics do not have any provisions for
holding a referendum, which means any action on any possible outcome
would be a wildcard.
These rising tensions are brought about not only by the upcoming
elections, but also by the June 2007 deadline for the high
representative to turn over control of the country to its elected
government; Bosnia-Herzegovina will run itself without direct
international supervision for the first time in more than a decade.
Schwarz-Schilling recently said that though there are tensions within
the country, the turnover will still occur next year. He said a "delay
would not be in the interest of Bosnia-Herzegovina because the country
has traveled as far as it can under international tutelage."
However, unless the upcoming elections clear a path for the Bosniaks,
Croats and Serbs to work together -- which looks highly unlikely, with
two of the three groups internally splitting and the third desiring to
leave the country altogether -- the international community will have
no choice but remain in the country to supervise. After all, the last
time this country had no outside supervision was during the Balkan
wars that killed more than 100,000 Bosniaks and Croats, displaced
nearly 2 million and left nearly 20,000 missing.
Serbian News Network - SNN
[email protected]
http://www.antic.org/
