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http://www.stratfor.com/products/premium/read_article.php?id=278502
Stratfor
Kosovo: The West Keeps a Card
up its Sleeve
October 19, 2006 18 33
GMT
Summary
The United Nations has extended the
mandate of its Special Envoy for Kosovo Marti Ahtisaari from November until June
2007, though Kosovar Prime Minister Agim Ceku said the move could escalate
conflict in the region. The decision comes as Serbia faces potential political
chaos -- the ratification of a new constitution, a crumbling coalition
government and the emerging threat of the election of a radical government. By
delaying Kosovo's independence, the West hopes to raise the chances of a more
cooperative government getting elected in Serbia in December -- and it hopes to
keep Kosovo as a card to play against Serbia if the radicals do come to power
there.
Analysis
The United Nations on Oct. 19 extended the
mandate of its Special Envoy for Kosovo Marti Ahtisaari from November until June
2007, which gives the United Nations the option to hold off on granting Kosovo's
independence.
Though Kosovo's independence is pretty much a given in the
European Union and NATO's eyes, timing is of the utmost importance. The United
Nations was to decide on Kosovo's independence by November, but recent events in
Serbia have forced the United Nations to step back and reconsider the radically
different paths an unstable Serbia could follow. The West -- meaning the
European Union and NATO -- wants to hold onto the Kosovo card in case it is
needed to keep Serbia in line.
Serbia's parliament recently approved a
new constitution, and the country will finally be able to hold general
government elections before the year's end. The Serbian Constitution was
nullified when its Montenegro region gained its independence in May. The newly
ratified constitution names Kosovo as a Serbian province; if Kosovo gains its
independence, the constitution will again be nullified.
Moreover, moments
after the constitution was approved, the pro-EU G17 Plus party quit Serbia's
ruling coalition, triggering a political crisis. G17 Plus quit to protest the
government's failure to hand over accused war criminal Ratko Mladic to the
International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia. Mladic's arrest is a
condition the European Union set for Serbia to resume accession
negotiations.
Serbia now has two options: follow the nationalist path, or
join the European Union and NATO. If Kosovo gains its independence before the
country's general election, Serbians will more than likely vote for a
nationalistic radical government. A delay in the Kosovo decision gives Serbia a
chance to elect a less-nationalistic government -- one more willing to work with
the West and less willing to allow Serbia to fall into the black hole of its
past. Serbian democrats have been lobbying for the delay, and it seems the West
has jumped on board. The West knows Serbia is still at risk of going radical
even if the Kosovo decision is made after the elections -- a problem that would
likely destabilize the entire Balkan region and other secessionist
areas.
If the radicals do take control in Serbia, the West will still
have the Kosovo card to play against Serbia to keep the radicals in
line.
There is one small problem with this strategy, however: the Kosovar
Albanians, who make up more than 90 percent of the province's population. They
have been waiting for independence for seven years. Kosovar Prime Minister Agim
Ceku warned Oct. 16 that delaying the decision on independence could escalate
conflict in the Balkans.
