~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ <http://www.stratfor.com/products/premium/read_article.php?id=282360> http://www.stratfor.com/products/premium/read_article.php?id=282360 Stratfor Geopolitical Diary: Germany's EU Presidential Ambitions December 29, 2006 03 05 GMT Germany will assume the six-month presidency of the European Union on Jan. 1, 2007. As one of the four EU power-players along with the United Kingdom, France and Italy, Germany has enough clout to resolve -- or at least sort through -- the major EU debates. Recently, though, the EU heavy hitters have been too involved in their own domestic debates to focus their attention on the European Union. Italy's ruling coalition of nine parties is holding on by a thread as the government tears itself apart over the nation's black hole of debt. Meanwhile, France has been concentrating on presidential and parliamentary elections set for the first half of 2007, which most likely will give rise to the first non-Gaullist French government in four decades. And across the English Channel, the United Kingdom is approaching a leadership transition as Prime Minister Tony Blair -- whose approval rating has hovered in the low 30 percent range -- will step down and allow Chancellor Gordon Brown to take over. Germany is focused inwards, too, given its fractured coalition government. Since becoming chancellor in November 2005, Merkel's and her government's approval ratings have sharply declined. But though the chancellor's coalition government -- consisting of the conservative Christian Democratic Union and the opposition Social Democratic Party -- can't decide on much within Germany, they both want a significant legacy for Germany's EU presidency. When Merkel spoke to the German parliament and later to a Dec. 14 summit of EU heads of state, she said the German EU presidency's main focus would be a developing a roadmap for promoting the EU constitution. Merkel said not achieving a common EU constitution would be "a historic failure." Germany will thus devote its time at the helm of the EU to one last big stab at holding the 25 -- soon to be 27 -- sovereign states together as a union. The European Union has failed to agree on much of anything in quite a while. And the largest contentious issue is the continued lack of an EU constitution after France and the Netherlands voted down the charter in 2005. Most within the European Union agree something must be done about resurrecting the EU constitution if the body is to remain a union, but the question is what. If France and the Netherlands hadn't vetoed the constitution, the United Kingdom and Poland -- which both want a brand-new EU constitution -- certainly would have done so. Germany wants unifying the union to be its EU presidential legacy. But with the four EU heavy hitters split for and against the constitution, and the EU policy of national vetoes, the constitutional issue is one square that cannot be circled. And if Germany, the most influential state in the European Union, can't save EU constitution even when it holds the EU presidency, in all likelihood, no one can. Ultimately, Germany's presidential legacy may be very different from what it intended. The large -- and tough -- issue that will come to a head during the German presidency is rising tensions in the Balkans. Merkel already has acknowledged that this issue will be taken seriously. Within the first month of 2007, Serbia will hold its national parliamentary election. This will help determine if the European Union can work with Serbia in the future or if Serbia will radicalize and destabilize the region. The outcome of the Serbian elections remains up in the air with two drastically opposed results possible. If the moderates win, the European Union and NATO can work with Belgrade to begin Westernizing the state. But Serbia's Radicals have just as much of a chance in taking power. The Radicals' main objective is to prevent independence for Kosovo. Though the international community has indicated Kosovo will inevitably separate from Serbia, the decision has been delayed until after the elections. In the meantime, Kosovars have grown increasingly agitated about own future. The other Balkan deadline that will fall on Germany's watch is the U.N. handover of power in Bosnia from the U.N. High Representative in Bosnia and Herzegovina to the Bosnian government, which is ethnically and politically split three ways. The three groups to govern Bosnia, the Muslims, Croats and Serbs, are deadlocked on how the country is supposed to function without U.N. or EU intervention -- and memories from the Bosnian war are still fresh in their minds. For now, European forces are securing the country, though these are scheduled to begin withdrawing in spring 2007, Germany included. With Romania and Bulgaria joining the European Union on Jan. 1, the Balkans are nearly surrounded by EU member countries, meaning the European Union will have to address rising tensions and instability in Southeastern Europe. Whether or not Germany likes it, these Balkan issues have fallen in its lap given the timing of its EU presidency. Keeping the Balkans from returning to its previous chaos accordingly could become its unintended presidential legacy. The union will continue to remain fractured this year during the German presidency and through Portugal's presidency in the second half of the year. Only one more heavy hitter -- France -- will assume the EU presidency before a string of smaller and less influential states fill the role through 2012. And France lacks Germany's determination or desire to sort through any of the union's differences.
