<http://www.iht.com/> International Herald Tribune
Kosovo independence will probably face delay By Nicholas Wood Sunday, July 8, 2007 DUBROVNIK, Croatia: A senior U.S. diplomat has cast doubt on the possibility of a quick resolution on Kosovo's status, suggesting that the plans that would enable the province to claim independence might not be acted upon by Western governments and Russia until next year. The suggestion made Saturday by Dan Fried, the U.S. assistant secretary of state for European affairs, is very likely to be seen as a setback for Kosovo's ethnic Albanian leadership, which until recently had been told by American officials that the region's status would be resolved in "weeks and not months." Western leaders and UN officials have warned that further delays might ignite violence in the province. Fried was appearing at a conference on NATO enlargement organized by the Croatian government at the seaside resort of Dubrovnik. He told delegates that he hoped Kosovo's future could be resolved in the months leading up to the alliance's next summit meeting, in Romania next April. "I can't give a precise date, but I suspect it will be a number of months before the Bucharest summit," he said. Fried's comments are the clearest indication to date that the United States now acknowledges that it is unlikely that Russia will soon agree to a UN plan that would grant the province independence under supervision by a European Union-led mission. Senior EU politicians at the conference Friday and Saturday also cast doubt on the possibility of an agreement being reached this summer. For the past eight years, the region has been administered by the United Nations, which took over after a 78-day NATO-led bombing campaign forced Serbian security forces to withdraw from the province. The Serbs were accused of committing widespread atrocities against ethnic Albanians. With increasing impatience, Kosovo's ethnic Albanian community is seeking independence, but Serbia, which still has nominal sovereignty over the province, is strongly opposed to the idea and is supported by Russia. This month, President George W. Bush and President Vladimir Putin failed to make progress on discussions about possible solutions during a meeting at the Bush family's estate in Kennebunkport, Maine. They agreed to leave the issue to Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and the Russian foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, to discuss at a later date. But Western officials say the threat of unrest in the province could increase if a solution is not found soon. On Thursday, the UN secretary general, Ban Ki Moon, issued a report to the Security Council that stated that if the province's "status remains undefined, there is a real risk that the progress achieved by the United Nations and the provisional institutions in Kosovo can begin to unravel." And on Friday, the NATO secretary general, Jaap de Hoop Scheffer, said: "It is important at this moment for all to exercise restraint and calm. But I think on the other hand that we should prevent unnecessary delay in trying to find a solution." Despite those warnings, the consensus emerging among European and American policy makers is that the status quo will have to remain for many months in the hope that Russia can eventually agree to a resolution allowing Kosovo to break away completely from Serbia. The gamble is that Kosovo's ethnic Albanian leadership can maintain calm within the region, so long as it knows independence is not in doubt, Western diplomats here said. "We are going to keep on working within the United Nations," Fried said in an interview. "We are not going to be rigid and doctrinaire." Fried was due to meet with ethnic Albanian leaders in Kosovo on Monday. Russia has rejected two draft resolutions in the Security Council arguing that an agreed solution has to be found between the Serbs and Albanians. American officials have suggested that if Russia continues to reject the proposal before the United Nations, the United States could recognize Kosovo's independence unilaterally. But the weight of European nations' support for a UN-sanctioned agreement and Russia's firm opposition to the Western-backed plan appear to have derailed U.S. hopes of a quick solution. "Britain and the U.S. thought the Russians would go along with this," said a senior European politician with extensive knowledge of the Balkans who spoke on condition of anonymity. "Now the entire strategy has blown up in their face." Western officials also warn that there is only the slightest chance of Russia softening its tough stance on Kosovo and other major foreign policy issues such as an American-backed missile defense system based in Eastern Europe. They fear the Kosovo dispute may now be drawn out over many months. "If you think that this is a passing phase in Russia, then you are dramatically wrong," said Kai Eide, a senior Norwegian diplomat and author of a UN report that first advocated Kosovo's independence in 2004. Eide and other European politicians said the West should use the next year if necessary to find a solution that would get Russian support. As yet, European states are not ready to consider any alternatives. Foreign Minister Carl Bildt of Sweden said European foreign ministers had recently discussed alternatives solutions that would lead to Kosovo's recognition without Security Council backing. But he said "the consequences of going unilateral are quite severe," and that it would be extremely difficult to find unanimous support among EU nations for that position. But while European states hope for a Russian compromise, Albanian, UN and American officials warn that events in Kosovo may ultimately force the bloc into taking a more resolute stance. "If the UN resolution does not work out, the Europeans will have to ask themselves how much violence are they prepared to take," a senior Western official said. "Some time, hard decisions will have to be taken by the United States and Europe." <http://www.iht.com/> International Herald TribuneCopyright © 2007 The International Herald Tribune | www.iht.com View article... <http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/07/08/news/kosovo.php>
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