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Balkans: The Kosovo Countdown
Risto Karajkov
Bologna, Italy
November 9, 2007
Troika negotiators speak to the media after talks on Kosovo in New York in
September. From left to right: Frank Wisner of the United States, Wolfgang
Ischinger of the European Union, and Alexander Botsan-Kharchenko of Russia.
(Photo: Stan Honda / AFP-Getty Images)
Time is running out for finding a compromise on Kosovo. The 120-day period
of negotiation, an extension after failure to agree on the Ahtisaari plan
for the Serbian province earlier this year, expires on Dec. 10, and the
current situation is one of stalemate. The parties do not seem any closer to
an agreement than they were before the final status talks started in January
2006. To many this is no surprise. Kosovo will accept nothing short of
independence, whereas Serbia is ready to accept everything but that.
Kosovo has been under United Nations mandate ever since the NATO
humanitarian intervention in 1999. The United Nations asked former President
Martti Ahtisaari of Finland to run the negotiations and propose a solution.
Ahtisaari's plan, presented earlier this year, proposed an internationally
supervised independence, without actually using the word "independence." The
plan failed because of Russian opposition in the United Nations Security
Council. Russia, a traditional Serbian ally, said it would not endorse a
solution that is not accepted by Serbia.
The United States supports independence for Kosovo and wants a resolution
shortly. Russia seems very adamant in opposing this. Yet, some analysts say
that the two countries have come to agreements over even more complicated
deals before. The European Union, as usual, is divided. Some members would
endorse independence for Kosovo, whereas others fear it is a dangerous
precedent for their own minority issues. Slovakia and Romania, both with
sizable Hungarian minorities, were the first to distance themselves.
Germany, which has a strong voice in the European Union, still does not seem
to have a stand. Germany has made it clear that it is against sidestepping
Russia and the United Nations. However, some analysts say the last thing
Germany wants is another row with the United States.
The critical dimension is one of time. Kosovo is tired of waiting and wants
a solution now. Since Serbia lacks much room to maneuver, it would prefer to
delay the issue, if possible indefinitely. To some in the European Union, a
prolongation would feel like relief. A few weeks ago, Kosovars grew scared
that the United States might also decide to consider such an alternative,
given the impasse with Russia. The State Department denied media rumors
about the existence of an idea to freeze the status until 2020 in exchange
for massive economic assistance to the province.
According to others, it is the delay that made things so hard in the first
place. Veton Surroi, Kosovo's unofficial foreign minister, says that if the
solution had not been delayed until now, Kosovo would not be the hostage of
other tensions between the United States and Russia, among them the United
States-Czech radar issue. Analysts say the Bush administration should have
reacted much earlier—in 2002. According to many, dealing with Russia may
have been easier back then. Russia today, say analysts, is using Kosovo to
reclaim its superpower status. They say Russia also wants payback for 1999,
when it couldn't stop NATO's bombing of Serbia.
Perhaps things would have been easier back in 2002, but it should be kept in
mind that the United States also placed greater priority on other things
back then.
The deadlock has even made the West speak the unspeakable. The European
Union's envoy in the new troika that manages the 120-day negotiation,
Wolfgang Ischinger of Germany, was the first to "imply" earlier this year
that a partition would even be considered if accepted by both Kosovo and
Serbia. (The other members of the troika are Frank Wisner of the United
States and Aleksandr Botsan-Kharchenko of Russia) Although all the major
players denied that they encouraged the parties to make such a move, the
"in-between words" were clear: in the absence of other options, that
concession was on the table. The message from the United States was that the
concession is an offer of limited duration; "During this period of
engagement, the United States is prepared to accept any outcome to which the
parties agree," officials said. Russia was also on board. However, both
Serbia and Kosovo turned down the idea of partition. "We are against any
partition," said Kosovo negotiator Veton Surroi.
Putting the borders in the Balkans up for redrawing would have been easily
the worst solution possible. Neighboring Macedonia, a quarter of whose
population is Albanian, and which also underwent a confined ethnic clash in
2001, would have been the first to suffer. "That would be akin to stumbling
200 years of Balkan history on our heads," commented Denko Maleski, the
country's former ambassador to the United Nations. Great powers have done
this several times in the past. As it goes, each redrawing contains the seed
for a future conflict.
With the Russian veto impeding the possibility for recognition of
independence by the Security Council, Kosovo is striving for a unilateral
declaration of independence after Dec. 10. The hope is that many individual
recognitions would follow and that the United States would take the lead.
Despite being a strong supporter of Kosovo, the United States warned the
government of Kosovo against any unilateral moves. There is no consensus on
this issue among Kosovo's leaders either. Whereas one block pushes for
recognition of independence after Dec. 10, another block feels things should
not be rushed. This latter block feels that unilateral action would delay
the process of recognition for many years and isolate Kosovo.
Nevertheless, the critical issue concerns what happens with the northern
part of the province, which is populated by Serbs. If Kosovo's parliament
declares independence (and some say the paperwork is done already), the
Serbs from the North could respond with secession and a new boundary would
be delineated. If this happens, the United States and Russia will stand on
opposite sides. As for the European Union, such an outcome would probably be
a nightmare.
Everybody says that resorting to violence is the best way for either Serbia
or Kosovo to lose support and position in the negotiation. The biggest fear,
however, is exactly that. Prolonged tension and deadlock could eventually
overheat the powder keg. A few Macedonian police officers have been killed
in its border areas with Kosovo over the past several months. On Nov. 7,
Macedonian police raided the village of Brodec, killing 6 men and arrested
13 others from a larger armed group. The leaders of that group recently fled
in what seemed coordinated prison breaks in both Macedonia and Kosovo. Many
of the men are former guerilla fighters from the Kosovo and Macedonian
conflicts. Many of these small militant groups appeared after final status
negotiations began last year, Even if they do not have the capacity to cause
a stir on a larger scale, as officials like to say—Macedonia even tried to
dismiss some earlier incidents as the work of smugglers—these groups should
not be underestimated. After all, this is how the trouble started the last
time in the Balkans.
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