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http://www.washingtontimes.com/article/20071208/FOREIGN/112080036/1001 






The Washington Times


Negotiations fail to settle Kosovo's fate


By David R. Sands
December 8, 2007 





 
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Not recognizing Serbia's sovereignty over Kosovo may harm stability in
Europe, according to Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.

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A diplomatic train wreck eight years in the making appeared all but certain
yesterday as U.S., European and Russian mediators admitted failure in a
last-ditch attempt to reach a deal in the volatile standoff over the fate of
the Serbian province of Kosovo.

"After 120 days of intensive negotiations, the parties were unable to reach
an agreement on Kosovo's status," negotiators said in a report to be
officially delivered Monday to U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon.

"Neither side was willing to yield on the basic question of sovereignty,"
the mediators stated.

In the face of Russian objections, NATO foreign ministers meeting in
Brussels pledged to beef up a 16,000-member international peace force in
Kosovo, whose Albanian majority appears determined to declare independence
from Belgrade before the winter is out.

The province has been in a kind of legal limbo since 1999, when NATO air
strikes drove out the forces of then-Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic,
accused of atrocities and ethnic cleansing against the Kosovo Albanian
community.

Serbia, strongly backed by Moscow, has rejected the idea of Kosovo
independence and a lengthy United Nations mediation program has failed to
produce a compromise. The United States and leading European Union powers
are expected to endorse a unilateral Kosovo declaration of independence, but
there are huge questions marks over what happens next.

Council on Foreign Relations European specialist Charles Kupchan said Kosovo
right now is a "tense, ugly place."

If Serbia resists Kosovo's attempt to break away — or if Serbian communities
inside Kosovo reject the province's independence bid — "we could actually
see bloodshed in the Balkans again next year," Mr. Kupchan said.

Kosovo has unexpectedly become a flash point in the deteriorating relations
between Russia and the West, with Moscow giving signs it would veto any bid
by Kosovo to join the United Nations if it breaks with Belgrade. Russia and
Serbia argue there is no precedent for the world body endorsing the
secession of territory from a member-state without its approval.

The U.N. Security Council resolution authorizing the peacekeeping force now
in Kosovo also explicitly recognizes Serbia's sovereignty, Russian Foreign
Minister Sergei Lavrov said yesterday after meeting NATO ministers in
Brussels.

"Anybody who goes in contravention of this is on a very slippery downward
slope," he warned. "It certainly won't help the stability of Europe."

U.S. and EU officials argue that, given Serbia's record of violence and
oppression, Kosovo's Albanian majority — an estimated 90 percent of the
province's 2 million people — will never accept rule from Belgrade again.
Many fear ethnic Albanians will turn to violence if they are left in limbo
much longer.

"We have to move on to the next step," Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice
told reporters after the NATO-Russia talks. "It is not going to produce
stability in the Balkans to ignore the reality of the situation."

The deadline for the last-ditch U.N. mediation effort expires Monday.
Analysts say the Kosovo government will likely wait a few weeks before
declaring independence, to give time for U.S. and European commanders to
prepare for any violence.

The Balkans is a region notorious for diplomatic and military chain
reactions, and the Kosovo crisis is no exception.

Some Serbian officials are already speculating that the Serb-dominated towns
of northern Kosovo will reject independence, demanding to stay within
Serbia.

Western diplomats have warned against breaking up Kosovo, but former Serbian
Premier Zoran Zivkovic said it may be the "only avenue" left to avoid major
bloodshed.

Mr. Kupchan said the ripples could quickly expand beyond that, with other
enclaves in the Balkans demanding borders be redrawn, and other ethnic
standoffs as far afield as Georgia, Russia and Azerbaijan citing the "Kosovo
precedent" to demand their own state.

• This article is based in part on wire service reports.


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