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Kosovo: A Provocative Office Opening December 12, 2007 20 23 GMT Summary The United Nations accused Serbia on Dec. 12 of deliberate "provocation" after the Serbs opened a new government office in Mitrovica, a hot spot in northern Kosovo split between Serbs and ethnic Albanians. If things deteriorate to the point that Serbian forces clash with NATO's Kosovo Force peacekeepers, Mitrovica will be where it happens. Analysis Serbia opened a new government office in Mitrovica, Kosovo, on Dec. 10, the same day U.N.-mediated negotiations over Kosovo's status expired without a solution. The Serbian move to reinforce its claim to a city that hangs precariously between peace and conflict just as international diplomacy has stalled came as thousands of protesters began gathering in Pristina to call for Kosovo's independence. If Kosovo declares independence unilaterally, the potential Serbian backlash might involve a conflict with NATO's peacekeeping task force, KFOR. If so, Mitrovica and northern Kosovo will see the worst of the violence. On the surface, opening a new Serbian government office in northern Kosovo sounds like routine administration. The Serbian government provides many public services to ethnic Serbs living in Kosovo, who do not trust Kosovo's semiautonomous regional services, run by ethnic Albanians. The Serbian minister who cut the ribbon at the office's opening Dec. 10 said the it is meant to "intensify" these public services. But U.N. spokesman Alexander Ivanko called the opening "a provocative act" and questioned the motive for greater Serbian presence in Kosovo at this time. Tensions were downplayed at a meeting between Serbian President Boris Tadic and his army chiefs of staff Dec. 12, where Lt. Zdravko Ponos called Kosovo stable and emphasized the importance of good relations with KFOR. Similarly, Defense Minister Dragan Sutanovac said Dec. 11 that he has confidence in KFOR's ability to prevent violence from erupting in the region. These assurances, however, do not reflect the extent to which Serbia's military and government are divided over Kosovo. The force of a Serbian backlash against a secessionist Kosovo could overwhelm cooler heads in Serbia's military; it also could take the form of paramilitary activity. The location of the Mitrovica office matters. Northern Kosovo is the economic heart of Kosovo and is home to nearly 80,000 Serbs who mostly have refused to be assimilated into the rest of the province, despite U.N. attempts to create regional unity. NATO and its allies have good reason to suspect that Serbia is positioning itself to retain northern Kosovo if the province declares independence. Northern Kosovo thus would constitute the fault line along which conflict played out. Foreseeing the potential for violence, KFOR recently rotated 90 U.S. soldiers out of reserves and the French-led northern Multinational Task Force, which is headquartered in Novo Selo but includes Mitrovica and Donje Zabare. KFOR says the rotation was merely routine, but it seems unlikely to be coincidental that Americans were rotated into a camp just north of Mitrovica a week before the Dec. 10 diplomatic deadline. Even 90 U.S. troops could boost the responsive capability of the northern task force, which -- aside from the French -- includes Danish, Moroccan, Belgian and Greek troops. Meanwhile, 1,600 more troops in Europe have been put on standby in case violence erupts. The multinational force's French leadership certainly will need all the help it can get to maintain order in the North if Kosovo secedes. The wildcard in all this is Russia. As long as Moscow limits its support for Serbia to words and does not commit troops or other military support, the violence that is likely to erupt in Kosovo might be limited to the North.
