ANALYSIS: Serbia faces radicalization after EU conclusions Dec 15, 2007, 14:08 GMT
Belgrade - The EU summit decision Friday to deploy a law- enforcing mission to Kosovo and prepare for the independence of the province looks set to be followed by radicalization in Serbia. The conclusions of the Brussels summit were 'especially abusive and unacceptable,' Serbian Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica said. Yet the conservative nationalist refused immediately to show his hand, keeping the reaction of his Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS) and of the state a secret until after the UN Security Council debates Kosovo next Wednesday. Kostunica's lieutenant in the DSS, the Kosovo Minister Slobodan Samardzic, earlier threatened the EU with 'serious problems' if it recognizes Kosovo as a new state. The message: Choose between Kosovo and Serbia, as a state cannot join an organization which amputated 15 per cent of its territory. The warning was quickly followed by a commissioned survey indicating that three-quarters of the population would rather give up EU membership than give up Kosovo. A crucial signal of Serbia's future political path would emerge with the winner of the presidential election on January 20 or, rather, the run-off on February 3. The Democratic Party (DS) chief and incumbent Boris Tadic is the favourite of the EU and US, and Western officials often describe him as the representative of the 'democratic bloc' in Serbia. His only real challenger, Tomislav Nikolic, is the leader of the ultra-nationalist Serbian Radical Party (SRS), which had been a part of Slobodan Milosevic's regime. Though by far the strongest single party, controlling a third of the Serbian parliament, the SRS has remained in opposition. Now Kostunica will have to pick a side and play 'kingmaker,' local analysts say. He would probably do as much as possible to damage the chances of Tadic, his current coalition partner whom he dislikes. Relations between the DSS and DS have already hit a low point, with Tadic last Wednesday forcing the presidential elections in spite of Kostunica's strongly expressed will. Local analysts point out that nationalists, extremists and conservatives would be able to tap two-thirds of the electorate if they could unite - but it is far from clear if Kostunica would risk an open or indirect support of Nikolic. He had already once backed him, when he was briefly elected a parliament speaker last spring, but was forced to retract amid a huge backlash. With the Kosovo situation as volatile, however, the potential of a new alliance is not to be excluded. A pact with the radicals would keep Kostunica in power, although the DSS slid to a just eight-per-cent support in opinion polls, and it is reckoned by many that that could provide enough motivation. 'The premier's party would most happily freeze the current situation,' the Belgrade daily Danas said Saturday. Why? Because though weaker than DS, DSS controls all levers of power - police, secret services and the powerful national television RTS. A possible scenario was developed: after a Nikolic win with Kostunica's support, the premier would remain in his office, and Tadic's people would be replaced by the radicals in parliament votes and in cabinet. Apart from replacing an unloved ally, that would weaken the DS, a party which was already weakened over the past three years because it has become tailored solely to interests of its president. © 2007 dpa - Deutsche Presse-Agentur http://news.monstersandcritics.com/europe/news/article_1381255.php/ANALYSIS_Serbia_faces_radicalization_after_EU_conclusions
