JANES Dancing with bears: Serbia's presidential polls Posted by: "sibercor2000" <mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]> [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Fri Jan 25, 2008 8:14 am (PST) <http://www.janes.com/news/security/countryrisk/fr/fr080125_1_n.shtml> http://www.janes.com/news/security/countryrisk/fr/fr080125_1_n.shtml JANE'S DEFENCE WEEKLY (UK) Dancing with bears: Serbia's presidential polls 25 January 2008 "One has to be careful even when hugging a big, friendly bear that one is not suffocated," warned EU enlargement commissioner Olli Rehn in June 2007, speaking of Russia's backing for Serbia over Kosovo's looming independence. Belgrade's big, friendly bear is now in the wings, waiting to see if its favoured candidate will triumph in a presidential showdown and shift the country decisively away from the West. The first round of Serbia's presidential elections held on 20 January saw ultranationalist Tomislav Nikolic of the Serbian Radical Party (SRS) take the lion's share of the vote with 39.4 per cent, setting him up for a widely predicted showdown against incumbent Boris Tadic of the Democratic Party (DS). With turnout at an extremely high 61 per cent in the first round, and Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica in the role of kingmaker, the ultimate outcome is still unclear. Tadic believes Serbia's future is in the EU and also believes Serbia needs Europe more than the bloc needs Belgrade. In contrast, Nikolic has previously warned that Serbia should abandon its accession process entirely if EU peacekeepers take over from the current UN force in Kosovo. If Kostunica now backs Tadic, he sets up a narrow victory and Serbia will continue its halting progress westwards. If he does not, the coalition could collapse. Should Nikolic win the presidency, his SRS could easily enter government in alliance with Kostunica's Democratic Party of Serbia. Such an outcome would see Serbia turn eastwards to Russia and further reforms, as well as EU and NATO integration, are unlikely as the country slips back into isolation. FORECAST If Tadic is victorious, he would still be sidelined by Kostunica. Such a result would only be a nominal victory for the West, but it remains more palatable than the alternative, which would see Belgrade the centre of a black hole in the Balkans while its neighbours move steadily and irrevocably towards Brussels. 320 of 1,065 words End of non-subscriber extract
