http://www.upiasiaonline.com/Politics/2008/03/01/time_not_ripe_for_kosovo_in dependence/1215/
Time not ripe for Kosovo independence ZHANG QUANYIPublished: March 01, 2008 SHANGHAI, China, Two weeks after Kosovo's declaration of independence on Feb. 17, Serbia refuses to accept the loss of its province, and many of the 120,000 Serbs living within Kosovo continue to defy the Albanian leadership. While the United States and major European nations were quick to recognize Kosovo, others in Europe, and Russia, have refused to do so. Although Kosovo's announcement sparked an initial violent reaction, with U.S. and European embassies attacked by Serbians, the Serb government was not prepared to use force to defend its sovereignty over the area. It has accused the United States and other supporters of Kosovo's independence of breaking up the international order, however, and sparked debates over international law. Serbia's traditional ally Russia has warned that support for Kosovan independence would likely trigger further conflicts in the Balkans, possibly bringing a new round of bloody war to this embattled region. Russia's ambassador to NATO, Dmitry Rogozin, warned last week that Russia might intervene with armed force if the European Union or NATO took a position on Kosovo that put them in conflict with the United Nations. This region has been a frequent powder-keg in history. World War I was triggered by the fervor of a Serb nationalist who assassinated an Austrian prince. World War II did not break out in the Balkans, but the struggle between Axis and Allied powers bitterly divided the peoples of this region, and a number of strategic battles were fought here. During the Cold War, the Balkan states were temporarily peaceful, with most of the region's governments under the umbrella of the Soviet Union. The attention of the two superpowers, the United States and the Soviet Union, was more focused on their arms race and on Central, Eastern and Western Europe, leaving the southern states relatively quiet. After the Cold War, dormant ethnic conflicts once again broke out, especially in Yugoslavia, eventually leading to the break-up of the country. As a result of Russia's inability to handle the Yugoslavian crisis, the United States and NATO exerted a growing influence in this area in the 1990s. Kosovo's declaration of independence could be said to be a consequence of a Western victory in the power struggle with Russia in this region. It is true that the concept of self-determination has become a universal principle since the beginning of the 20th century. People are seen as having a moral and legal right to determine their own political status. Both the League of Nations and the United Nations have supported this principle, and the right of a people to become independent. This spirit of self-determination has reshaped the world since World War II. At the end of that war there were only about 50 countries, yet now there are over 190 states in the world. Right after the war the first wave of independent countries emerged, most of them liberated from their former colonial masters, including the Philippines, India and Korea. In the 1960s and 1970s, most Asian and African countries became independent from their former colonial rulers. At the end of the Cold War, a spate of new nations was born in eastern and southern Europe with the break-up of the Soviet Union. Russia itself can be seen as the result of this trend. However, in all these cases, the formation of new sovereign states was linked to a transformation of the international system. The internal drive for self-determination was supported by external forces. Nowadays the support of a majority of U.N. member states would constitute an external force that would lend legitimacy to a nation's independence. The Helsinki Accords hold that liberty must go with consensus. A lack of consensus can easily lead to conflict. For example, the fact that Russia and China, which are permanent members of the U.N. Security Council, do not support Kosovo's independence can be a source of conflict. Even within Europe there is no consensus on this matter. Kosovo's declaration of independence challenges the definition of a sovereign state and the international system. Political order is determined by both individual states and the international community. A desire for self-determination is not the only consideration. Kosovo's independence could lead to conflict or war, as it threatens the interests of a far wider group of people. It could spark a chain reaction and open up a Pandora's Box of dormant conflicts within sovereign states composed of different ethnic groups. If this occurs, the basic order of the international system could be eroded, and peace will be unachievable. For these reasons, unless an international consensus can be reached, now is not the time for Kosovo's independence. (Zhang Quanyi is an associate professor at the Zhejiang Wanli University in Ningbo, China, and a Ph.D. candidate at Shanghai International Studies University, studying policy making and collective identity. His research interests focus on conflict management and identity construction. He can be contacted at [EMAIL PROTECTED] <mailto:qyzhangupi%40gmail.com> . __._,_.___
